Trading Desk Insights
Crypto markets surged into the weekend, with BTC clearing the $120K mark to trade at $122,300, putting it less than 1% from its all-time high. The rally since April has been driven primarily by spot buying, a constructive backdrop for a sustained bull phase. BTC’s implied volatility climbed from 33 to 37 after sitting at multi-year lows, pointing to potential for larger price swings ahead. ETH extended its recent outperformance, reaching $4,300, its highest level since December 2021, while ETHBTC has gained more than 20% since last Monday. Macro drivers remain in focus, with the latest leg of the rally coinciding with President Trump’s signing of the “Big Beautiful Bill” in early July, lifting the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion. Capital is rotating down the risk curve, as BTC dominance fell to 59.7%, down 4 percentage points since early August, with ETH ecosystem tokens and DeFi assets leading the move.
In sector news, Chainlink announced a partnership with NYSE-parent ICE to bring forex and precious metals pricing data on-chain. The integration is designed to deliver market feeds with accuracy and latency standards aligned with traditional capital markets.
Looking ahead, U.S. inflation data will be the macro driver to watch. CPI lands Tuesday, followed by PPI on Thursday, both likely to influence the Fed’s September policy path. A hotter-than-expected print could dampen risk appetite with equities hovering near record highs.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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