Trading Desk Insights
The crypto market leaned lower as BTC broke below $116k, slicing through its 50-day moving average and now probing support near $112k. ETH lost the $4,200 handle and is tracking toward its 20-day at $4,080. Pressure is building under the surface, with over $4 billion in ETH eligible to unstake, potentially adding to sell pressure. ETF outflows didn’t help, jumping more than $300 million on the day.
On-chain data from Glassnode frames this as a classic profit-taking phase. BTC tends to retrace after setting new highs, and this time looks no different. That macro unwind showed up in options too, ETH’s 7-day implied volatility popped to 73% while 30-day IV held steady, pointing to expectations of short-term turbulence without longer-term panic.
Tether made a quiet but notable hire, bringing on Bo Hines, formerly with the White House Crypto Council, as U.S. strategy advisor. He’s tasked with steering the company’s push into the American market, an effort that could shift tone given Tether’s historically offshore posture.
Over in rates, fed funds futures now price in an 83% chance of a 25 bp cut at the September FOMC. Jackson Hole could be the stage for Powell to tee that up. As his final appearance there as Fed Chair, expect messaging that emphasizes Fed independence while opening the door to cuts ahead.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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