Trading Desk Insights
BTC slipped below its 50-day moving average and is now pressing against the early August lows near $112,000, underscoring the market’s clear pivot to risk-off. A decisive break below this level could open the door to $109,000, with $105,000 in play if momentum builds. The move looks driven by short-term profit-taking, especially from recent entrants, and ETF flows have not helped, Tuesday alone saw nearly $1 billion in combined net outflows from spot BTC and ETH products.
A broader liquidity squeeze is also adding weight. The U.S. Treasury’s General Account has climbed from $320 billion to over $500 billion since late July, draining liquidity as it rebuilds. Markets are now bracing for another $500–$600 billion in issuance over the coming months, which would tighten conditions further.
Ethereum tracked Bitcoin lower, with profit-taking kicking in after its recent rally. But under the surface, institutional interest remains steady. Spot ETF demand for ETH continues to show up, and treasury allocations are ticking higher. Still, open interest across futures markets is near record highs, raising the risk of outsized swings on any sentiment shift.
Macro watchers are eyeing the Fed’s July meeting minutes due at 2pm ET. While no hike was delivered at that meeting, the tone could shape rate expectations into September.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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