Trading Desk Insights
Crypto markets stayed heavy Tuesday, with Bitcoin stuck in a tight range between 85k and 88k as sellers kept leaning on strength. The 100-week SMA around 84k has held for weeks, but a clean break below could open a move toward 79k. To flip the script, BTC would need to close above 95k to test that big psychological 100k level, though year-end catalysts look thin. Gold’s at fresh highs near 4,300, while alts and digital-asset equities both bled, down 5–10% and 8–10% respectively. With risk appetite fading into the holidays and liquidity thinning out, a slow grind lower wouldn’t surprise anyone.
Friday’s NFP print added fuel to rate-cut hopes but also reinforced the idea that the market’s running on fumes. Crypto barely reacted, suggesting traders care more about internal liquidity and positioning than macro headlines right now. Some long-term allocators have been quietly adding into weakness, seeing the drawdown as a buying window, but short-term vol remains choppy.
ETF flows tell the same story, defensive positioning everywhere. ETH ETFs have seen multiple days of outflows, SOL and XRP have held flat, and BTC ETFs just bled $635 million over two sessions, more than double last week’s inflows. Institutional appetite looks soft, and the market’s showing it.
Meanwhile, memecoin volumes have collapsed, averaging under $5B this month after peaking near $87B in 2024. Trading activity in the sector has cratered over 80% this year, showing how quickly speculative energy drained out of retail flow.
On the macro side, Fed Governor Waller said inflation’s still above target but should ease in the coming months. He pegged policy rates 50–100 bps above neutral, adding that tariff effects on jobs are unclear but the disinflation trend looks intact. Traders now turn to Thursday’s CPI release, the last major macro print before markets slip fully into year-end mode.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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