Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin’s price has been holding in the $88,000 – $92,000 range recently, testing key macro and technical support after a broader retracement from its October 2025 peak above $120,000 +, with traders watching both the $90,000 band and resistance near $95,000 to $100,000 for directional cues.
On‑chain data show long‑term holders (LTHs) moving coins dormant for years at unprecedented rates across 2024 and 2025, marking some of the largest revived supply on record. This broad distribution from older cohorts differs from past cycles where revived supply coincided with speculative momentum and retail fervor.
That suggests a structural shift in the cycle: instead of classic boom‑and‑bust driven by retail sentiment and leverage, much of the supply signal reflects strategic adjustments around macro regime changes and institutional allocation decisions. Models framing late‑2025–2026 as a phase of range‑bound trading around core zones rather than straight continuation align with the idea that BTC is absorbing long‑dated supply while awaiting fresh catalysts.
Macroeconomic backdrop remains influential. Risk assets have shown choppiness amid geopolitical tensions and policy noise, contributing to haven demand in gold and metals even as BTC lingers near key levels. That broader risk‑off posture pressures crypto risk markets and tempers momentum. Recent macro commentary from structured finance forums highlights how Fed rate expectations and global trade policy uncertainty have seeded volatility across asset classes this year, with crypto not immune.
In this environment, Bitcoin’s behavior resembles a cycle familiar in broad outline — rally to new highs, followed by profit‑taking and consolidation but the underlying drivers are evolving. Long‑term holders are not simply repeating the 2017 or 2021 pattern of distribution; realized selling is occurring amid institutional flow dynamics and macro sentiment shifts rather than classic retail mania.
On price structure, technical indicators and forecasts generally frame $80,000 – $140,000 as the broad structural range for 2026, with near‑term upside hinging on reclaiming key resistance and absorption of supply overhang. Macro triggers such as policy shifts or liquidity inflections are viewed as necessary to break out of consolidation. At the same time, many alt coins are well below their 50 week moving average with $ETH trading around $3,000.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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