Trading Desk Insights
Risk came off hard on Sunday with investors dumping across the board after another chaotic week of Trump headlines out of Davos, Greenland, tariffs, and his usual geopolitical fireworks. Monday’s open looked a lot steadier though, with traders regrouping ahead of a big week packed with earnings and the first Fed meeting of the year. Equities are still outpacing crypto, but BTC managed to bounce about 2% off Sunday’s $86k lows before stalling near $89k. Trend’s still lower highs, lower lows, and vols are showing it, open interest has steadied but there’s strong demand for short-term downside protection.
BTC continues to lag traditional havens as yen strength and fiscal jitters weigh on sentiment. The Fed’s “rate check” with the BoJ has traders wondering if there’s coordinated intervention brewing, and that’s pushed people to lighten up on risk again as the yen carry unwinds.
Eyes are now on Wednesday’s Fed decision. The rate call itself should be a snoozer, but Powell’s tone will set the tone, a dovish lean keeps the dollar soft and could give crypto some air, but anything remotely hawkish probably drags BTC back toward the lows.
Elsewhere, Canada’s PM Mark Carney said the country won’t chase a trade deal with China after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian exports, another reminder of how hot global trade politics are getting.
On the policy front, Congress is finally pushing forward with a federal crypto bill that could clean up the regulatory mess we’ve been operating in for years. If it lands the way it’s being pitched, it should bring clearer oversight on token classifications and stablecoins, a big step toward making crypto markets safer and more investable for mainstream money.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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