Trading Desk Insights
Markets brushed off geopolitical noise Monday, rallying despite the U.S. strike on Venezuela and the reported capture of Nicolás Maduro. Traders largely bet the move wouldn’t spiral into a wider conflict. Bitcoin jumped 5%, Nasdaq added 1%, and gold climbed 2%, showing risk appetite is still alive even as safe havens caught a bid.
Crypto spent most of December on the back foot as U.S. investors likely sold holdings for tax-loss harvesting. BTC lagged equities and metals through 2025, finishing the year down about 7%, but that sets up room for a catch-up move early in Q1 if flows return.
For now, BTC looks constructive. Open interest has recovered to November levels, and a break above 95k would clear the path toward that psychological 100k zone. CVD isn’t screaming bullish yet, but flows have ticked higher in recent days. Deribit data shows traders loading up on $100k strike calls, now the largest open-interest line across maturities, a quiet sign that positioning is turning optimistic again.
Meanwhile, memecoins have come back swinging in early 2026. DOGE and SHIB are leading the move as traders rotate into high-beta names. Dominance for the sector has rebounded off historic lows, hinting at a fresh wave of speculative interest, though history says these rallies can unwind fast once spot demand fades or BTC cools.
Elsewhere, MicroStrategy added 1,287 BTC worth about $116 million, alongside $62 million in extra cash, pushing reserves to $2.25 billion. All eyes now on January 15, when MSCI announces whether MSTR joins its main index basket, a decision that could drive institutional inflows.
On the macro side, crude edged higher as the U.S.-led ouster of Maduro cast new uncertainty over Venezuela’s oil output. President Trump said U.S. investment in the country’s energy sector is a key objective going forward. Venezuela, a founding OPEC member, still holds the world’s largest proven reserves, roughly 303 billion barrels, or 17% of global supply, making it the next geopolitical flashpoint to watch.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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