Trading Desk Insights
Risk assets edged higher on Wednesday as investors kicked off the second half with a cautious tone. Historically, July has treated bitcoin well, with nine positive performances and only four down months since 2013. The average return for July stands at 8.2%, a notable improvement over June’s 2.2% gain.
Futures markets are showing signs of fatigue. Open interest in both BTC and ETH remains flat, suggesting that traders are staying on the sidelines as prices chop within a tight range. Funding rates for SOL, SUI, and XRP are in negative territory, even as XRP open interest ticks to a four-week high. Over on the CME, the BTC futures premium has slipped to 4.3%, its lowest level since October last year, reflecting waning institutional conviction and growing uncertainty around the next major move. This narrowing basis is eating into cash and carry arbitrage and reflects broader weakness in retail and speculative flows.
Technically, BTC may be gaining some short-term traction. The daily MACD has just crossed above its signal line for the first time since late May, which could set the stage for a momentum shift. A clean break above the recent highs near 109,000 would mark a breakout from the trend channel and potentially open the door for a run at the record highs around 112,000.
Meanwhile, corporate treasuries are increasingly treating bitcoin as a growth asset. Publicly listed companies acquired about 131,000 BTC in Q2, up 18% from the previous quarter and outpacing the 8% rise in U.S. spot ETF holdings. Public firms now control around 4% of bitcoin’s total supply, compared to roughly 6.8% held by ETFs.
On the macro front, the current weakness in the U.S. dollar may be on borrowed time. The DXY is at a three-year low but is sitting on long-term trendline support that has held since 2009. The monthly RSI is deeply oversold at 37, hinting at a possible rebound in the weeks or months ahead. A dollar recovery would likely put pressure on crypto and other risk assets.
In Washington, Trump’s tax and spending package heads to the House for a vote. Any volatility around the bill is expected to be temporary. Market participants are also watching for developments on the trade front as Trump’s 90-day pause on new tariffs nears expiration. Once these political hurdles clear and the Fed regains focus, there could be significant upside for risk assets across the board.
The News Room
Bitcoin powerhouse Strategy nears S&P 500 inclusion as net income soars
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) now holds 597,325 BTC (worth ≈ $63.9 billion), generating over $21 billion in unrealized gains and recently posting massive net income—potentially $11–14 billion—bringing it close to S&P 500 inclusion. The Bitcoin-driven asset accumulation strategy has propelled its stock to exceed the S&P 500's performance since 2020, though shares dipped ~6% on the inclusion news.
Corporate treasuries double ETF Bitcoin buys in H1, signaling aggressive boardroom adoption
Publicly traded companies purchased 245,510 BTC in the first half of 2025—more than double the 118,424 BTC bought by ETFs in the same period—marking a 375% year-over-year jump in corporate accumulation. This shift shows mounting boardroom confidence in Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset, with Strategy alone responsible for 55% of the total corporate purchase volume.
SEC reportedly considering standard to fast-track crypto ETFs
The SEC is reportedly working with exchanges to create a generic listing framework for token-based ETFs, allowing issuers to bypass case-by-case rule-change filings by meeting preset criteria (e.g. market cap, liquidity). Approved assets would follow a standardized 75-day Form S‑1 review, potentially accelerating ETF rollouts. Industry analysts hail this as a major step toward regulatory clarity, possibly paving the way for quicker approvals of top‑50 coins.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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