Trading Desk Insights
Crypto edged higher over the weekend, with BTC reclaiming the $120K mark despite looming overhang from the UK Home Office, which is considering offloading $7B in seized BTC to plug budget gaps. While sentiment remains broadly bullish, BTC’s momentum has clearly stalled since early last week, leaving it rangebound near $118K. Its market dominance dropped 6% week-over-week to 60.5%, signaling a potential structural rotation into altcoins.
ETH and other L1s are catching a bid, boosted by the passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S, a new regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance that could channel institutional flows into Ethereum and similar blockchains. If BlackRock’s spot ETH ETF adds staking, expect that rotation to accelerate. The ETH/BTC ratio has bounced 80% off the March lows, a clear tell that the market’s leaning into ETH outperformance. Fundstrat sees potential for ETH to run toward $15K over the medium to long term.
ETF flows remain robust. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $5.8B in MTD inflows, the strongest since the post-election surge in 2024. ETH ETFs are gaining steam too, pulling in $3.3B MTD and even flipping BTC ETFs in daily flows on Thursday and Friday.
Elsewhere, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) disclosed a $2B BTC allocation, with another $300M deployed via options strategies focused on BTC-linked assets.
On the macro side, Wall Street logged another winning week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to push fresh all-time highs, with earnings off to a strong start, over 85% of the 62 reporting S&P companies beat estimates.
Trade tensions are bubbling up again. The U.S. is holding firm on its August 1st deadline to impose higher tariffs on the EU. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed optimism about a deal but warned the 30% baseline tariff is locked in. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated the idea of a broad Fed review, far beyond the current controversy around building renovations, adding fuel to the fire in the ongoing White House-Fed standoff.
The News Room
UK eyes sale of £5 billion in seized Bitcoin to plug budget gap
The British government is exploring the sale of roughly £5 billion (≈ $6.3 b USD) worth of confiscated Bitcoin to help manage its fiscal shortfall. While the move could offer immediate budget relief, officials face criticism that they may sacrifice additional gains by cashing out too soon.
Bank of Japan injects USD liquidity amid global dollar stress
On July 17, the BOJ began quietly supplying U.S. dollar liquidity through pooled collateral operations—likely a precautionary measure against rising global dollar strains. Analysts say this step reflects mounting pressure on carry trades and may mark an early warning of deeper stress in dollar funding markets due to a persistently hawkish Fed.
Ethereum validators support raise in block gas limit to 45 million
Ethereum validators have backed a proposal to increase the base-layer gas limit from its current level to 45 million, a 25% bump. This upgrade—part of the upcoming Fusaka hard fork (EIP‑9678)—will boost transaction capacity in line with growing demand and follows ETH’s recent ~25% rally toward a six-month high above $3,800.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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