Trading Desk Insights
Risk assets sold off sharply late Thursday following reports that Israel had launched a broad wave of airstrikes on Iran, reigniting geopolitical risk across markets. Crude spiked on the news, adding fuel to already fragile sentiment. The strikes came less than 24 hours after the IAEA flagged Iran’s non-compliance on uranium enrichment caps. By Friday morning, former President Trump warned Tehran to strike a nuclear deal “before there is nothing left,” while Iran responded by launching over 100 drones toward Israeli territory, making good on its earlier threats of “severe punishment.” A U.S. National Security Council meeting is set for 11 a.m. ET, with markets bracing for further developments.
Traders are now closely watching for escalation. Polymarket odds imply a 91% probability of Iranian retaliation this month, while expectations of U.S. military action surged from 4% to 28% overnight.
Meanwhile, gold continues to shine. The ECB confirmed that gold has now overtaken the euro in global reserve share, as central banks accelerate de-dollarization. The 2022 freezing of Russia’s reserves proved to sovereigns that dollar reserves are not apolitical. Gold is up over 30% YTD as a result.
BTC found support again at its 50-day MA near $103K, rebounding for the second time from that level. However, it remains below the 20-day MA, signaling indecision in the near term. SOL saw a brief rally on reports that the SEC is engaging with ETF issuers to revise their S-1 filings, fueling speculation of an expedited launch timeline. SOL has since retraced, down 12% from Wednesday’s highs. Bloomberg’s Balchunas and Seyffart remain constructive, maintaining a 90% approval probability for a SOL ETF by year-end, possibly as early as July.
In TradFi crossover news, The Wall Street Journal reports that retail giants like Walmart and Amazon are exploring the use of digital currencies to bypass credit card fees and traditional banking rails. The shift hinges on the Genius Act, a proposed stablecoin framework that just cleared a key step in Congress. If passed, it could unlock stablecoin adoption at scale for major corporates.
The News Room
Vitalik Proposes “Lean Ethereum” to Achieve Quantum Security & Simpler Validator Operations
Ethereum co‑founder Vitalik Buterin, alongside researcher Justin Drake, outlined a “Lean Ethereum” initiative aimed at streamlining protocol complexity while bolstering post‑quantum security. The roadmap, presented at a Berlin conference, targets three pillars: enhanced cryptographic resilience with post‑quantum signatures and reworked data availability, reduced consensus/execution overhead to ease validator onboarding, and optimized performance via faster block finality (three-step finality), aggregated signatures, zero‑knowledge VMs, and efficient erasure-coded data layers
Shopify to Enable USDC Payments via Base Across Its Checkout Ecosystem
Shopify is launching native support for USDC stablecoin payments through its Checkout and Shop Pay interfaces, powered by Coinbase’s Base L2 and integrated via a joint Shopify‑Coinbase smart contract protocol. Currently in early access, the upgrade lets consumers pay in USDC while merchants choose to either convert to local fiat or retain USDC. The deployment streamlines USDC payments for merchants globally, requiring minimal integration effort
World’s Largest Financial Clearinghouse DTCC Eyeing Stablecoin Launch
The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which handles the lion’s share of U.S. securities clearing/settlement, is reportedly exploring issuance of a U.S. dollar–backed stablecoin to facilitate faster, more efficient asset movements. The project remains contingent on regulatory clarity and legislative support, with the DTCC positioned to act swiftly once frameworks solidify
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