Trading Desk Insights
Middle East tensions continue to dominate the macro backdrop, with markets closely watching for signs of escalation or containment. Risk assets, including crypto and equities, rebounded on Monday as investors grew more confident that the Israel-Iran conflict would remain localized. While Iran floated the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, crude prices, which had surged to $78, retraced sharply, falling 8% to around $71. Gold also rallied, reaffirming its role as a safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Crypto markets regained footing, with BTC holding firm above the key $100K psychological level, shrugging off initial fears. Institutional participation continues to dampen knee-jerk selling on headline risk. Meanwhile, the ETH-BTC implied volatility spread has widened, suggesting ETH options are commanding a premium relative to BTC. ETH bulls argue the token remains undervalued given its broader utility in staking, Layer 2 scaling, DeFi, and tokenization, positioning it differently than BTC’s “digital gold” narrative.
In corporate developments, Tron is eyeing a public listing following a pause in the U.S. probe into its billionaire founder. Strategy added over 10,000 BTC (~$1B) to its balance sheet, funded through high-yield preferred shares and equity issuance. Metaplanet also ramped up its BTC exposure, acquiring 1,112 BTC for $117.2M, leapfrogging Coinbase to become the ninth-largest holder with over 10K BTC.
Looking ahead, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting takes center stage. While Trump is publicly pressuring Powell to ease policy, markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a hold. Elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical risks have only strengthened the Fed’s resolve to remain cautious, pushing rate cut expectations further out on the curve.
The News Room
Stablecoins as the “highest‑utility” money—but still awaiting the iPhone moment
Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire heralds stablecoins as “the highest utility form of money ever created,” thanks to their speed, low cost, and programmable features. However, he cautions the stablecoin space hasn’t yet had its “iPhone moment”—a breakthrough that triggers mainstream adoption. Allaire and others believe once developers and users fully realize the power of real‑time, programmable digital dollars, the leap to mass adoption will follow.
Justin Sun aiming for U.S. listing via reverse merger with Eric Trump-linked SRM
Justin Sun, TRON’s founder, intends to bring a Tron-linked entity public in the U.S. through a reverse merger with SRM Entertainment, potentially raising $210 million in token-backed financing. The move would create “Tron Inc.” and reportedly position Eric Trump in a leadership role. SRM has pledged $100 million toward TRX staking and treasury initiatives, causing TRX to jump nearly 7% on the news.
France considers Bitcoin mining to absorb surplus power and stabilize its grid
French lawmakers are proposing a national review to explore using Bitcoin mining to consume excess electricity—primarily from nuclear power plants—thus turning otherwise wasted energy into economic value. They highlight mining’s flexibility to stabilize the grid, repurpose old industrial sites, and even reuse waste heat. This could help reduce €80 million in annual power losses and align with France’s decarbonization goals.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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