Trading Desk Insights
Risk assets climbed on Friday as markets kept a close eye on escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, with the possibility of direct U.S. military involvement now firmly in focus. Investors remain on edge as the standoff shows no signs of easing. President Trump is reportedly considering a strike on Tehran, and according to the White House, a final decision is expected within two weeks. As a result, betting markets saw the probability of U.S. intervention before month-end drop from around 70 percent to 40 percent.
Volatility remains subdued, which could either reflect underlying market resilience or mask looming instability. On one hand, BTC continues to trade above the 100k mark, with no signs of broad liquidation despite the geopolitical overhang. On the other, this stretch of low volatility could be setting the stage for a sharp move in either direction. Momentum appears to be cooling. Spot volumes are picking up but still trail the recent average. ETF inflows have softened, and whale wallet activity has tapered off. The shift may point to a more institutional market structure, defined by larger but less frequent transactions. Meanwhile, options markets are flashing caution. Puts are pricing at a premium to calls, suggesting traders are bracing for near-term downside risk.
Elsewhere, Arizona is inching toward passing legislation that would allow the State Treasurer to take custody of abandoned or seized digital assets and create a formal reserve fund for bitcoin and other crypto. On the corporate side, Circle’s stock surged over 500 percent post-IPO, with investors betting big on its central role if the U.S. moves to legitimize stablecoins as digital cash.
In classic Trump style, the former president lashed out at Jerome Powell again on Thursday, accusing the Fed Chair of costing the country hundreds of billions by holding off on rate cuts. Trump hinted that he will soon reveal who he plans to appoint as Powell’s replacement once the current term expires.
The News Room
Trump family cuts stake in World Liberty Financial by 20 %
President Trump’s family has quietly reduced its ownership in World Liberty Financial (WLFI) from 75 % in December 2024 to about 40 % after June 8, according to an update on the company’s website and reported by Forbes. Though it’s unclear how much cash they pocketed, estimates suggest a sale in the tens of millions. The move comes amid growing scrutiny of Trump’s crypto-related financial ties and just as the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, aimed at regulating stablecoins—a bill the President has urged lawmakers to pass promptly.
Circle’s stock rally boosts valuation to nearly $50 billion
Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, has seen its public stock price surge approximately 540 % since its IPO, bringing its valuation close to $50 billion. This meteoric rise reflects investor enthusiasm around stablecoins and Circle’s position as a dominant player in the digital liquidity space. The rally propelled shares above $150 apiece and prompted significant trading volume, highlighting the growing acceptance of stablecoin-issuing companies in mainstream markets
Why Ripple says London can be the West’s next crypto hub
At its UK Policy Summit in London on June 18, Ripple unveiled a four‑point plan urging British lawmakers to quickly establish a growth-minded regulatory framework, set global standards, embrace stablecoins (including international ones), and remove tax or legal barriers to tokenization. Ripple’s UK and Europe managing director, Cassie Craddock, argued that with the UK Treasury’s recent draft Cryptoassets Order under the Financial Services and Markets Act, Britain has a timely opportunity to outpace both the U.S. and EU in becoming the next major crypto hub
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