Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin traded in a tight range around the $70,000 level heading into Thursday’s U.S. session as markets digested the latest macroeconomic data. Initial jobless claims came in at 213,000 for the week ending March 7, largely in line with expectations and only slightly below the previous week’s reading. The data reinforced the narrative that the U.S. labor market remains relatively stable, following Wednesday’s CPI release which also came in broadly as expected. With no major macro surprises, Bitcoin price action remained compressed as traders continue to wait for a clear directional catalyst.
At the same time, expectations for near term Federal Reserve policy remain firmly hawkish. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are now assigning less than a 1% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming March 18 FOMC meeting. The persistence of higher interest rate expectations has limited upside momentum across risk assets, including equities and digital assets, as investors continue to adjust to the possibility that monetary policy may remain restrictive for longer than previously anticipated.
Meanwhile, volatility in the energy markets continues to add an additional layer of uncertainty to the macro backdrop. Oil prices surged more than 5% on the day and briefly traded above $95 per barrel as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. Uncertainty surrounding the duration of the conflict and potential disruptions to global energy supply have kept crude markets extremely sensitive to new developments. Even reports of a coordinated release of roughly 400 million barrels from strategic reserves did little to ease the upward pressure on prices.
From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin remains locked within a clearly defined trading range. Many traders are currently watching the $72,000 level as key resistance while the $62,000 region continues to serve as a broader support zone. With the point of control near $68,000, price action within this band may continue to remain choppy until a stronger catalyst emerges. Historically, consolidations of this nature can persist for several weeks before resolving into a more decisive directional move.
Private credit markets are also showing early signs of stress beneath the surface. U.S. private credit defaults reached 9.2% in 2025, more than double the 4.5% default rate observed in broadly syndicated loans. The pressure appears concentrated among smaller borrowers, with companies generating less than $25M in EBITDA defaulting at nearly 4x the rate of larger issuers. One example circulating in credit markets is a stressed loan tied to “Project Leopard,” which is currently trading at a yield nearly double where it began 2026. In response to the shifting risk environment, JPMorgan has reportedly marked down certain private credit exposures and restricted lending to some private credit funds. Despite the rising default rate, realized losses for lenders have remained relatively contained so far, as many first lien recoveries are still coming back close to par.
For now, Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing near the $70,000 region while macro forces continue to shape market sentiment. The interaction between elevated oil prices, persistent geopolitical risk, tightening financial conditions, and emerging stress in private credit markets will likely remain important drivers for broader risk assets as investors assess whether markets can maintain stability or move toward a more volatile phase.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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