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Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin is currently attempting to break and close above its 200-day moving average, located near the 84,000 mark, in a bid to reclaim neutral ground and potentially regain bullish momentum. Short-term holders of BTC have sold off over 100,000 coins since February, contributing to the recent downward pressure. However, we’ve observed a bullish divergence in the RSI over the past few days, coupled with positive macroeconomic developments, which suggest that risk assets, including Bitcoin, could be poised for a recovery from this point.
Meanwhile, gold has firmly positioned itself as the ultimate safe haven in the current market environment, reaching a new record high of $3,000 per ounce for the first time, up 14% YTD, while Bitcoin has underperformed with a YTD loss of 11%. According to ByTree, Gold ETFs have seen $10 billion in inflows over the past month, contrasting sharply with the $5 billion in outflows recorded by BTC ETFs.
In other developments, the combined market cap of Treasury-backed tokens has increased by $800 million since January, reaching a new all-time high of $4.2 billion as of Wednesday. Additionally, there are reports that the Trump family has been in talks to acquire a stake in Binance’s U.S. subsidiary through World Liberty Financial. These discussions, which began last year after Binance reached out to Trump allies to help facilitate its return to the U.S. market, have led to a 5% surge in BNB. Binance CEO CZ has since denied any involvement in these talks.
Turning to equities, the broader market has shifted from record highs to correction territory in just a matter of weeks, largely driven by uncertainty surrounding tariffs. However, sentiment improved on Wall Street last Friday after signs emerged that a government shutdown could be avoided. Since the Nasdaq’s peak three weeks ago, the seven largest tech companies have collectively lost $2.7 trillion in market capitalization. The recent sell-off was triggered by concerns that escalating tariffs could lead to a global trade war, dampen economic growth, and potentially trigger a recession. As of Thursday’s close, the Nasdaq had dropped 4.9% on the week, on track for its largest weekly decline since September.
The News Room
Russia Using Crypto in Oil Trade with China and India to Skirt Western Sanctions
Russia is increasingly using cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, ether, and USDT in its oil trade with China and India to bypass Western sanctions, Reuters reported, citing anonymous sources. Crypto accounts for a small but growing portion of Russia’s $192 billion annual oil trade, helping facilitate conversions between yuan, rupees, and rubles. This shift follows legislative changes in December allowing crypto for international payments amid banking restrictions due to sanctions. While Russia's central bank does not recognize crypto as legal tender, recent policy changes suggest a move toward broader adoption, including experimental crypto trading for qualified investors and new tax regulations for mining and transactions.
Trump-backed World Liberty Financial Concludes $550 Million Public Token Sale
World Liberty Financial, a Trump-backed DeFi project, has concluded its latest token sale, raising approximately $550 million from selling 25% of WLFI’s 100 billion token supply. This brings its total funds raised to $590 million, including private rounds. WLFI co-founder Zak Folkman stated that 63% of the total supply is set for public sale, indicating future sales. Initially launched in October 2024, WLFI faced modest demand but gained traction after Trump’s memecoin launch. Tron’s Justin Sun invested $30 million in the project, which focuses on supporting USD-pegged stablecoins and DeFi applications. Despite the Trump family’s endorsement, the project’s white paper clarifies they do not own or run it.
US Court Allows 3AC to Expand FTX Claim to $1.5 Billion; FTX Argues Reorganization Plan at Risk
A U.S. bankruptcy court has allowed Three Arrows Capital (3AC) to expand its claim against FTX from $120 million to $1.53 billion, despite FTX’s objections that the motion was too late and could disrupt its reorganization plan. The court ruled that 3AC's liquidators had made timely efforts to obtain records, but delays by FTX debtors hindered the process. FTX argued that the expanded claim would cause "significant prejudice" and impact creditor repayments, but the court found little evidence supporting this claim. 3AC initially collapsed in 2022 following the Terra-Luna crash, revealing major risk management failures.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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