Trading Desk Insights
Macro and market developments supported a broad rally across digital assets Monday, with Bitcoin climbing toward the $75,000 level while altcoins significantly outperformed. Bitcoin rose roughly 3.7% to $74,138 and Ethereum surged nearly 9.7% to $2,296, leading gains across major layer-one networks such as Solana and Cardano. The move was supported by easing geopolitical tensions, as signals that Iranian oil shipments may resume through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower and helped stabilize global risk sentiment. Despite the strength in price action, underlying market structure suggests a more fragile backdrop.
Institutional positioning continues to diverge from price. Spot ETF flows recorded approximately $6.1 billion in net outflows across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana products, indicating persistent institutional selling pressure. This suggests that the rally has been primarily driven by retail and offshore demand absorbing supply. Such divergences are typically difficult to sustain, especially as macro uncertainty remains elevated heading into key policy events.
On-chain and derivatives data further highlight potential structural weakness. Bitcoin’s rebound toward the mid $70,000 range has been met with declining Coinbase premium levels, signaling weak spot demand from U.S. participants. At the same time, open interest trends show a lack of conviction from futures traders, creating a divergence where price rises without corresponding leverage expansion. This dynamic raises the risk that the current move could evolve into a bull trap rather than a sustained breakout.
Technically, Bitcoin continues to face heavy resistance in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, with significant sell-side liquidity layered above. A move toward $78,000 to $82,000 remains possible but is expected to be challenging without a clear pickup in spot demand. Failure to reclaim and hold these levels would reinforce the view that the recent rally is a relief bounce within a broader consolidation or downtrend structure.
Looking ahead, market focus remains firmly on the March 19 Federal Reserve rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference, which are expected to anchor near-term volatility across risk assets. Additional catalysts include the SEC deadline for XRP ETF applications on March 21 and upcoming Core PCE inflation data. Until clearer signals emerge from both macro policy and spot demand, markets may remain range-bound, with elevated risk of downside if current structural weaknesses persist.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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