Trading Desk Insights
Macro data triggered a sharp reaction across risk assets on Friday as Bitcoin slipped back below the $70,000 level following a disappointing U.S. employment report. Nonfarm payrolls showed the economy lost roughly 92,000 jobs in February, sharply diverging from expectations for a gain of around 58,000. The unemployment rate also ticked higher to 4.4%, reinforcing the view that the U.S. labor market is beginning to weaken after several months of resilience. Under normal conditions, softer labor data would support risk assets by strengthening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, markets appear unconvinced that policymakers will shift course quickly.
Interest rate expectations remain relatively hawkish despite the weakening data. Pricing from CME’s FedWatch tool continues to show a low probability of a near term rate cut at the March 18 Federal Reserve meeting, with markets currently expecting only one rate reduction throughout 2026. This disconnect between deteriorating economic data and stubbornly tight monetary policy expectations has weighed on broader risk sentiment. U.S. equities moved lower alongside Bitcoin, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declining around 1–1.5% during the session.
From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin continues to struggle to hold breakouts above its recent trading range. The latest move toward $71,000 was quickly rejected, marking another instance where price briefly moved above range resistance before retracing. Similar deviations have occurred multiple times over the past few months, suggesting that liquidity above the range is repeatedly being used as an exit point for traders rather than a catalyst for sustained upside. As a result, price action has once again rotated back toward key technical reference levels.
Traders may continue to treat rallies as short term deviations rather than confirmed breakouts. For now, the broader structure reflects a market caught between weakening macro conditions that could eventually support liquidity driven upside and persistent caution from participants unwilling to aggressively add risk before clearer signals from the Federal Reserve emerge.
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