Trading Desk Insights
Crypto markets advanced through Tuesday’s session, with Bitcoin climbing toward $105K and Ethereum positioning for what could be a decisive breakout. BTC extended its pattern of higher lows that began earlier this month, rebounding from $102.6K into the U.S. open as traders targeted a potential push to $107K. Sentiment improved after reports of “massive” Bitcoin withdrawals from Binance, one of the largest spikes of 2025, which analysts viewed as a sign of accumulation and increased self-custody. OTC desk activity also rose, signaling renewed institutional participation even as traders stayed cautious near the $107K to $107.4K resistance zone.
Ethereum outperformed on the day, flashing technical signals of an imminent breakout after a period of consolidation. The asset is “seconds away” from breaking out of a falling wedge structure that has been forming since early October. A close above $3,560, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci level, would likely confirm a bullish reversal and open a path toward $4,400 by mid-December. The setup is supported by a bullish MACD crossover, historically a strong momentum indicator for multi-week rallies. On the flip side, rejection at the upper wedge boundary could send ETH back to $3,000–$3,200 or, in a deeper pullback, to $2,710 near the wedge apex.
ETH/BTC remains near cycle lows, consistent with historical patterns where Ethereum tends to underperform Bitcoin ahead of December before reversing higher. With BTC maintaining strength above its 50-week moving average, the base case calls for ETH to form a higher low and prepare for one final rally of the current cycle. Overall, the tone across digital assets turned more constructive today, as both BTC and ETH defend key support zones and technical conditions hint at a broader recovery phase heading into year-end.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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