Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin’s washout looks like it’s starting to cool off. Short-term holder losses are easing, onchain data is flashing early signs of capitulation, and we’re seeing hints that a bottom might be taking shape. This is the third roughly 30% correction since spot ETFs went live in the U.S., so it’s not unfamiliar territory. Open interest has stayed surprisingly steady since the Oct 10 dump, while spot volume finally picked up after the $89k touch yesterday. Still, $88k is the key line to watch, if that gives way in a thin liquidity environment, the whole market likely takes another leg lower, alts included. We’ve already seen capital rotate into high-beta names, but those rallies keep getting faded. For now, it’s mostly dead cat bounces until sentiment resets to neutral.
The options board shows a cautious tone into year-end. For Nov 28 expiry, puts are stacked around $90k and $80k, while calls cluster between $100k and $125k. For Dec 26, biggest strikes are $85k and $140k. Traders are basically hedging for both tails, but leaning defensive.
Macro side, all eyes on the Fed minutes at 2pm ET. Markets want clarity on how divided policymakers are over more easing, especially with December now looking like a coin toss for a 25bp cut. The recent government shutdown delayed key data, muddying the picture, but with operations now back up, the Dec 9–10 meeting will be key. This meeting will include a fresh Summary of Economic Projections and a dot plot, which should give better insight into how many cuts the Fed actually sees next year.
In equities, Nvidia earnings after the bell could either calm or amplify the tech jitters. The street expects a strong beat and upbeat AI-driven guidance, but the stock has a lot to live up to. Profit-taking across megacap tech this week shows traders are questioning just how much gas the AI story has left in the short term.
Looking ahead, Thursday’s delayed nonfarm payrolls will be the next macro swing factor. A soft print could put rate cuts back on the table and offer some relief to risk assets, crypto included.
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