Trading Desk Insights
Equities slipped and crypto followed, with AI winners like Palantir giving back ground as valuation nerves creep in. The blame rotation is familiar, Chair Powell sounded hawkish, the dollar keeps pushing higher, and some old wallets are still leaning on the market. DXY punched through 100 for the first time since August, a level that usually tightens the screws on risk, from BTC to the high beta corners of tech.
Bitcoin is grinding toward its late June lows, trading near 103,000. That leaves it about 20% off the October 6 peak at 126,500. Price sits right on the 50w moving average, a line that has been real support since 2023. A decisive break and close below 103,000 would invite a test of the round 100,000 area and opens a path toward 98,000 if momentum accelerates. Until BTC stabilizes, rallies will be sold and dips will find fewer brave hands.
Solana found buyers at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace near 156, which can act as short term support if BTC stops sliding. If BTC steadies, SOL has room to base and bounce, but follow through will depend on broader risk tone.
Macro is not helping. The government shutdown has now run 35 days, tying the all time mark, and it is feeding a risk off mood. The December Fed meeting sits in the path, with investors hoping for a third straight cut to backstop stretched equity multiples and a cooling labor market. Governor Lisa Cook kept it data dependent on Monday, noting that the path will turn on incoming prints and the drag from tariffs on inflation. In other words, the bar for relief is higher, the dollar is firm, and crypto needs a cleaner tape to find a bid.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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