Trading Desk Insights
The US government shut down early Wednesday morning as Democrats and Republicans failed to agree on a short‑term deal to keep the government funded. Historically, equities tend to hold up well during shutdowns. This time the market is likely to focus on the length of the shutdown since a prolonged closure could delay key economic data ahead of the Fed’s October meeting. The Labor Department announced Friday it will halt nearly all activity, meaning the September nonfarm payrolls report will not be released at week’s end.
Sentiment shifted from short‑term bearish last week to mildly bullish. Crypto markets remained stable early this week, though traders are cautious ahead of major U.S. economic data releases. Upcoming jobs data and Fed announcements are expected to drive market direction and interest rate expectations.
Against that backdrop, Bitcoin ticked higher on Wednesday while most risk assets declined. That move underscores the evolving view of BTC as a store of value during times of dysfunction, similar to gold, which hit yet another record high, its 39th this year, as investors seek a safe‑haven asset amid economic or geopolitical uncertainty. With the Fed’s easing cycle under way, dollar weakness and falling real rates should be supportive for both BTC and gold. Bitcoin’s rise also reflects greater acceptance among Wall Street institutions and growing respect from global investors adopting it as a legitimate portfolio component. In Bitcoin’s order books, offers are stacking at $117,500; a break of that level could propel a move toward $118,000.
What becomes of our anticipated spot ETFs for SOL, XRP, and LTC expected next week? Asset managers are revising their S‑1 registration statements, a signal the SEC is moving toward approval. Yet a federal shutdown could stall most of that progress.
In the altcoin space, news around SOL is becoming central. The network’s total value locked has surged to $12.2 billion, up over 50 % since June, fueling forecasts for new highs. SOL futures at the CME have reached $1 billion in open interest, rising faster than ETH or BTC, underscoring rapid institutional adoption.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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