Trading Desk Insights
Markets remain sluggish but signs of a rebound are starting to appear. Retail participation in Bitcoin continues to fade even as prices hold near record highs. Google searches for “Bitcoin” dropped to 19 while Coinbase’s app ranking slid to 29th in the finance category from 3rd earlier this year, signaling that retail enthusiasm has cooled. Data shows spot demand declining at a 30-day pace of 111,000 BTC, the sharpest drop since April. The Fear and Greed Index fell from 71 to 24, showing that traders remain cautious even as BTC holds around 110,000.
Institutional activity is quietly strengthening. CME futures open interest climbed to $28.3 billion, overtaking Binance at $23 billion and Bybit at $12.2 billion. The shift reflects a growing presence of traditional finance as retail traders retreat. After Friday’s $74 billion leverage flush, speculative positions were reset while CME remained steady, underscoring how regulated venues are gaining ground in setting market tone.
The derivatives landscape continues to evolve. CME’s lead in open interest points to deeper institutional involvement, but trading volumes still concentrate on exchanges offering perpetual futures and higher leverage. Binance and Bybit remain dominant for altcoins, while CME is becoming the preferred venue for institutions seeking lower leverage and regulated exposure. This structural divide highlights how crypto is splitting into two distinct markets: one retail-driven and another increasingly institutional.
Ethereum accumulation is accelerating. BitMine purchased 104336 ETH worth about $417 million, lifting its total to roughly 3 million ETH, or about 2.5% of total supply. Public companies acquired 95 percent of all ETH held in treasuries last quarter, about 4 million ETH valued above $19 billion. With nearly 40% of the supply locked in staking and ETF inflows growing, analysts say the groundwork for an ETH supercycle is forming.
Macro sentiment is cautiously optimistic. The Fed’s balance sheet has contracted from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, and policymakers have hinted that tightening may soon end with rate cuts on the horizon. Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing remain a risk factor, but improving liquidity, stable institutional flows, and ETF momentum suggest risk assets could trade sideways before resuming a gradual climb into year-end.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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