Trading Desk Insights
Equities and crypto rallied as investors looked past the latest United States government shutdown. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the shutdown could weigh on growth, yet the base case is a brief pause that limits damage. The Senate’s next voting window is Friday. Prediction markets lean toward a shutdown that lasts close to two weeks. As visibility narrows, flows are tilting toward gold and crypto.
Bitcoin cleared the 118,000 bearish supply zone we have tracked. The daily close flips structure toward the highs near 124,500. A pullback to former resistance is plausible before the next leg higher. Open interest climbed across majors as traders chased after being caught offside.
Positioning now reflects easier global liquidity. With Friday’s payrolls possibly delayed and Japanese yields at their highest since 2008, crypto is beginning to drift away from broader macro caution. Data gaps and fiscal fog often keep central banks more careful.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged the largest daily inflow since September 10 at $675.8 million. BlackRock IBIT now sits near the top 20 ETFs by assets at 90.7 billion dollars.
Nasdaq listed VisionSys AI announced a $2b treasury plan centered on SOL. The first phase targets $500m of SOL to acquire and stake within six months. The company named early SOL backer Hakob Sirounian as chief strategy officer.
Futures now price a 99% chance of a rate hike in October and an 87% chance of two cuts by December. Those probabilities were 37% a month ago and 61% a week ago.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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