Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin steadied near $114,500 after Monday’s surge as traders shifted focus to the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. The market paused following a strong rally that lifted BTC from $104,800 to almost $116,000, fueled by optimism around a potential U.S.–China trade truce and improving global risk sentiment. Futures open interest climbed to $27.6 billion, with funding rates staying positive, reflecting a cautious but steady bullish tone.
Hedera’s HBAR led altcoin gains, soaring 17 percent after Canary Capital confirmed plans for an HBAR ETF listing on the NYSE Arca. Trading volume spiked 344 percent to $871 million, underscoring renewed speculative interest. Despite HBAR’s breakout, most altcoins like ZEC and DASH retreated, pushing the “altcoin season” index down to 28 out of 100 from 78 in September. The broader market remains selective as capital concentrates in high-conviction assets.
In derivatives, open interest and funding trends highlight controlled risk appetite. Bitcoin’s options market shows a measured bullish bias, with implied volatility sloping upward in contango formation, hinting at expectations of higher future volatility. The 25-delta skew rose to 4 percent, showing traders are paying premiums for calls, while put-call volume leaned 64 percent toward calls. CoinGlass data recorded $270 million in liquidations over 24 hours, mainly concentrated around $116,000, marking a level traders are now watching closely.
Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic heading into the Fed’s rate decision, with consensus building around a 25-basis-point cut to the 4.00 to 4.25 percent range. Analysts believe the combination of easing policy and stable leverage could reinforce risk appetite through the week, especially if macro conditions continue to improve and institutional inflows persist.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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