Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin slipped to $113,000 on Wednesday as traders took profit from local highs near $116,000, diverging from U.S. equities that climbed to fresh records ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The move reflected a “volatile retest” within Bitcoin’s broader trading range, with $114,500 eyed for a weekly close confirmation and $111,000 serving as key near-term support. Futures open interest held firm, while funding rates remained balanced, signaling cautious positioning rather than heavy selling pressure.
The broader market showed mixed sentiment. Equities rallied, with the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high of 6,914, supported by optimism over a potential U.S. and China trade truce and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut. The decision is widely seen as a modest catalyst, yet expectations for easier policy have maintained supportive conditions across risk assets, including crypto.
Bitcoin’s October “golden week” rally lost momentum after a strong start. Historically, BTC gains around 7 percent during this seasonal window, but this year’s advance has slowed to about 4.5 percent, with the price pulling back after briefly touching $116,000. Despite the softer performance, broader market models still point toward a potential year-end climb toward $160,000 if liquidity remains favorable and institutional inflows persist.
In derivatives, leverage conditions remain stable, with funding and open interest reflecting steady participation. The 21-week EMA near $111,000 continues to act as a technical pivot, while volatility has clustered around $116,000, where more than $270 million in liquidations recently occurred.
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic heading into the Fed’s announcement. With expectations of easing policy, improving trade sentiment, and consistent institutional demand through ETFs and corporate treasuries, Bitcoin’s broader uptrend remains intact despite short-term volatility.
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