Trading Desk Insights
With the U.S. government shutdown pausing traditional indicators like employment reports, traders are leaning into alternative assets, especially bitcoin and gold. BTC pushed to 121,900 after a near 12% weekly rally, while gold rose 3% to 3,925. Large holders and ETFs are driving demand, with BTC balances notably higher than in prior years.
Onchain, several holder groups have shifted from distribution to accumulation for the first time since August. Wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC swung sharply into buying after distributing last week. Holders with 10 to 100 BTC are beginning to add again. Retail owners with less than 10 BTC have slowed their selling and are showing early signs of renewed bids.
Ahead, markets are watching potential ETF catalysts for altcoins, including SOL and XRP, which could slip if the shutdown persists. In DeFi, Aster is leading. Among large caps, BNB is the top performer today as it reaches 1,150.
Elsewhere, Avalanche Treasury Co., AVAT, will merge with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp in a $675m SPAC deal that targets a $1 billion AVAX treasury and a Nasdaq listing in 2026.
The shutdown, now in its third day on Friday, is amplifying concerns about macro and policy headwinds, inflation risks, and a cooling labor market. Investors are waiting on duration to assess the scope of the economic hit.
Crypto Charts
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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