Trading Desk Insights
Markets shrugged off macro headwinds despite a major jobs‐data revision that exposed cracks in the labor market. On a brighter note PPI came in well below forecasts, fueling risk appetite and easing expectations into the near term.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics handed markets a sharp surprise by trimming 911k jobs from prior estimates for the year ending March 2025. That hole works out to an average overstatement of 76k jobs per month and raises fresh doubt about earlier confidence in the labor story. The unexpected labor weakness prompted Bitcoin to skid from about $113,200 to $110,700 swiftly.
Producer price inflation delivered relief, printing −0.1 % versus +0.3 % estimates. That softness renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve may be closer to rate cuts. Odds for a 50 basis‑point cut rose modestly from 7 % yesterday to 8.3 % today. Prediction markets on Polymarket bid that probability up to 14 %.
Bitcoin is looking ripe for a breakout. If prices break above $113,500, it would confirm the breakout of an inverted Head-and-Shoulders pattern on the 4H timeframe, pushing prices to a target of $119,000.
Onchain attention is flowing. Open interest is climbing in ETH, SOL, and HYPE, while XRP and SUI are seeing investors withdraw capital.
A structural development in digital assets: Dogecoin is poised to become the first purely speculative token to anchor a U.S. ETF. That marks a notable nod from institutions to culture‑driven assets. DOGE has risen 13 % since September began and shows technical room for another 10 % move higher.
In equity markets, MetaPlanet unveiled plans to raise $1.4 billion via international share issuance, sending its stock up 16 % today.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump urged the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100 % on Chinese and Indian imports of Russian oil, a move aimed at tightening economic pressure on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile Oracle surprised markets with a blow‑out cloud forecast. Multicloud database revenue from Amazon, Google and Microsoft surged 1 530 % in the last quarter, evidently behind Oracle’s more than 30 % stock rally.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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