Trading Desk Insights
Markets opened soft after CPI came in a touch hotter than expected. Headline inflation rose to 2.9% YoY, in line with forecasts but up from 2.7% last month. The MoM print surprised to the upside at 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected. Prices sold off early, but risk rallied after the equity open, pushing major indexes to session highs. Rate cut odds for September ticked up anyway, with the probability of a 50bp move rising from 8.9% to 11.3%.
Bitcoin continues to lag macro liquidity indicators. CF Benchmarks pointed out that BTC is trading well below fair value when mapped against U.S. M2 growth, with the current gap as wide as any time since August 2024. Similar setups in 2016, 2019, and 2021 preceded major upside. Meanwhile, gold is holding near all-time highs, and the BTC-to-gold ratio is nudging into levels that previously marked local bottoms for crypto.
Flows continue to rotate out of ETH and back into Bitcoin and higher-beta alts. ETH options show rising demand for downside protection, while SOL has caught a strong bid. TVL on Solana just hit a record $12.2 billion, up 57% since June. SOL has outperformed ETH by 25% since the end of August, helped by ETF tailwinds and a $1.65 billion raise by Forward Industries to build the largest Solana-focused treasury in the corporate space.
MicroStrategy missed entry into the S&P 500 despite checking the technical boxes. The rejection may reflect institutional discomfort with the BTC-on-balance-sheet model, and could tilt flows toward listed firms with active crypto operations, exchanges, miners, infra, over passive holders.
In Europe, the ECB held its benchmark rate at 2.15% this morning, pausing after eight rate cuts since June.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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