Trading Desk Insights
Suddenly all eyes looking for yield beyond BTC have swung away from ETH toward SOL. Welcome to what looks very much like Solana season. It isn’t just hype: this blockchain is processing north of 6 billion transactions a day, and it’s the fuel igniting a memecoin wave, brewing under the surface now, readying for the next run‑up. Open interest in SOL has set a fresh record, topping 70 million SOL, and funding rates are firmly positive, signaling real bullish capital entering. Watch the SOL/BTC and SOL/ETH pairs, they’ll tell you how Solana is holding up versus its peers.
Meanwhile the crypto complex continues to lag equities, even though BTC is holding steady around $115,000. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both made new highs Monday. The VIX rose about 8 % off recent lows, which always deserves attention. BTC volatility indices nudged upward from multi‑month troughs, a sign volatility may be waking up. The US Dollar Index is trending downward. Long‑term yields, especially the 10‑year, remain muted. That combination has historically set a favorable macro backdrop for crypto upside.
Sentiment is shifting fast. Last week’s bullish tone seems to be giving way to froth. More traders are leaning bearish now. One signal: over the weekend, altcoin open interest and volume outpaced that of BTC. That pattern has in past cycles flagged local tops, worth treating with respect.
On the hype front, Circle is stepping up around Hyperliquid. It is becoming a validator, exploring HyperEVM, and engaging with the HIP‑3 incentive programs. Hyperliquid’s share of Binance’s trading volume is climbing: ~14 % now versus ~8 % in January 2025, ~2 % in September 2024. And its revenue is showing up, close to $30 million per week in fees recently.
In macro‑news, investors responded positively to President Trump’s upbeat comments on trade talks with China. Tech stocks saw gains. The Senate confirmed his pick, Stephen Miran, to the Fed Board of Governors. Some Democrats warn this raises questions about the Fed’s independence given the optics of a White House appointee in such a role.
All eyes now turn to the Fed’s rate decision Wednesday. Markets are pricing in a 100 % chance of at least a 25 bps cut, that’s more or less baked in. What will matter most are the dot plot revisions, the employment data, and what the Fed signals in the press conference. Those will define the next leg of the cycle.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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