Trading Desk Insights
The crypto market is catching its breath this Friday morning after several strong sessions. Altcoins have cooled somewhat. Still, names with upcoming treasury issuances and those most likely to benefit early from ETF launches, AVAX and LINK among them, are outperforming.
Risk aversion is showing up clearly in options. On Deribit, puts are trading at a premium across all time frames. Skews over 7‑, 30‑, 60‑, and 90‑day periods are modestly negative, suggesting traders are leaning bearish.
ETF debuts for DOGE and XRP have generated day‑one volume of about $54.7m combined. Despite this, the broader memecoin sector remains muted. It seems many investors are waiting on another Bitcoin all‑time high before jumping back in.
Elsewhere, Consensys’ CEO reportedly confirmed that a MetaMask token is arriving sooner than expected. In U.S. policy, Michigan’s Bitcoin Reserve Bill has advanced to a second reading after seven months of dormancy. If passed it would permit the state treasury to allocate up to 10% of reserves to BTC and potentially other crypto.
On the macro front traditional markets are offering little help for crypto bulls. The dollar index is up, Treasury yields are rising. In Japan the Bank of Japan held rates steady; two dissenters signalled hikes may be in store. U.S. equities pushed higher following fresh record highs; investors seem increasingly confident of future Fed rate cuts.
In geopolitics and value store dynamics, there was a call between President Trump and Xi Jinping aimed at finalizing a deal to keep TikTok operating in the U.S. And Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio reiterated that gold and non‑fiat currencies are likely to emerge stronger as stores of value amid concerns about currency devaluation given global debt pressures.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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