Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin slid below $109,000, its weakest print in nearly a month, with ether tumbling 8% toward $3,800. The drawdown sparked a heavy derivatives unwind, nearly $870 million liquidated in the past 24 hours. Spot is now pressing into last week’s $107,500 lows. Failure to hold that range would shift focus to the 200-day SMA near $104,250, and further down to the 50-week SMA around $99,000 as ultimate support.
Despite the shakeout, seasonal patterns still lean constructive. Since 2013, BTC has averaged an 85% gain in Q4, historically its strongest quarter, a backdrop many are keeping in mind as positioning resets.
Macro stayed supportive with August core PCE essentially unchanged, reinforcing expectations the Fed will cut rates into year-end. Markets continue to price 50 bps of easing across the next few meetings. The bigger catalyst comes next week with labor data, where a strong print could undercut the case for aggressive cuts.
Flows remain a headwind. Bitcoin ETFs shifted into net seller mode with $258 million of outflows, while Ethereum ETFs bled $251 million, four straight sessions of redemptions. Whale wallets have also flipped net sellers, offloading 147,000 BTC since Aug. 21, the largest reduction since the early 2023 bull leg.
Away from markets, the White House confirmed tariffs of up to 100% on trucks, furniture and pharmaceuticals starting Oct. 1. President Trump also signed an executive order advancing a TikTok restructuring, with a new U.S. joint venture to manage operations and ByteDance capped below 20% ownership, pending Beijing’s approval. The deal values the unit at $14 billion, according to Vice President JD Vance.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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