Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin slipped under pressure today, falling more than 2 percent to $109,500 after failing to hold above $112,000. The pullback came even as weaker U.S. labor data raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Key support sits near $110K, with the risk of a retest of $100K if momentum fails to return. Resistance is clustered between $113,600 and $115,600, with heavier selling expected closer to $118K. Until price can reclaim higher ground, every bounce risks being seen as a bull trap.
Gold took center stage today, surging to fresh record highs while equities and crypto lagged. Investors continue to favor gold as the global safe haven amid rising inflationary pressures, deficit spending, and an oversupplied Treasury market. The Fed’s upcoming meeting is in sharp focus, with markets almost fully pricing in a cut. However, if inflation remains persistent, it may prove to be the only move this year.
Ethereum showed more resilience. Despite $300 million in ETF outflows over the past two sessions, representing just over one percent of assets under management, ETH rallied 4.7 percent midweek to reclaim $4,300 and snap a week-long downtrend. Derivatives positioning and options flows suggest traders are still leaning on support at $4,300 while eyeing $5,000 as the next significant upside target.
Regulatory pressure also shaped today’s narrative. Nasdaq-listed companies using Bitcoin purchases to boost stock prices are facing tighter scrutiny, with stricter oversight on capital raises tied to crypto holdings. This pushback could temper enthusiasm among firms looking to follow aggressive treasury strategies and signals a shift toward more cautious integration of digital assets in public markets.
Crypto Charts
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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