Trading Desk Insights
Risk assets are climbing again. BTC has bounced 5% off early September lows, tracking a broader risk-on move that’s lifted Nasdaq 3.5% over the same stretch. Behind it, the market is re-pricing the Fed.
After last week’s weak jobs print, rate cut odds for the September 17 FOMC meeting have shifted sharply. The probability of a 25bp cut ticked up to 92% from 89%, but the real shift came at the margin, with the odds of a 50bp cut jumping from zero to 8%. Traders now have eyes on this week’s inflation data, which could lock in or derail the case for cuts. August PPI lands Wednesday, CPI follows Thursday. The Street is expecting a slight uptick in headline CPI from 2.7% to 2.9% YoY. Any upside surprise could complicate the picture, but consensus is forming around labor softness driving the Fed to begin easing, possibly by 50–75bps across the September to December window.
That easing bias may be setting the stage for reallocation. US money market funds have hit a record $7 trillion, and cuts could start pulling capital out of cash. Risk assets, including crypto, stand to benefit if that rotation picks up.
Elsewhere, gold pushed to a third consecutive all-time high, topping $3,650 per ounce. Some read the move as a broader signal of eroding confidence in fiat frameworks, which could echo into BTC if it sustains.
On the institutional side, Nasdaq is reportedly investing $50 million into Gemini, a notable vote of confidence amid ongoing exchange scrutiny. Meanwhile, CBOE will roll out continuous trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, expanding institutional access to round-the-clock crypto exposure.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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