April 12, 2024

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Next FOMC meeting: May 1st 2024

  • Probability of a 25bps ease → 4%
  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 96%

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The News Room

Hong Kong Set to Approve First Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs as soon as Monday: Bloomberg

Hong Kong regulators are poised to approve the first batch of spot ETFs based on Bitcoin and Ether as early as Monday, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. A subsidiary of Harvest Fund Management Company is likely to receive approval to issue both Bitcoin and Ether funds, alongside a partnership between Bosera Asset Management (International) Co. and HashKey Capital, which is also expected to secure approvals for both types of spot ETFs. These developments follow the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission's recent moves to open digital asset investments to institutional investors, with the launch of these ETFs tentatively scheduled for the end of April.


BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust Drives Record Q1 ETF Inflows, Highlighting Digital Asset Growth

During the first quarter, BlackRock reported that approximately one-fifth of its ETF net inflows were channeled into its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), totaling about $13.9 billion of the $67 billion total net inflows across its entire ETF range. Launched on January 11, the Bitcoin fund quickly became notable for its rapid growth, managing nearly $19 billion in assets and earning the title of "the fastest-growing ETF in history," as stated by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink during an earnings call. This surge in demand contributed to BlackRock reaching a record $10.5 trillion in assets under management. Additionally, BlackRock continues to innovate in the digital assets space, introducing its first tokenized fund—the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund—aimed at providing exposure to US dollar yields through the tokenization platform, Securitize Markets. Fink emphasized that these developments reflect BlackRock's ongoing strategy to enhance market efficiencies and expand investment access through innovative product offerings.


Monad Labs Raises $225 Million, Eyes Increased Transaction Speeds with New Ethereum-Compatible Blockchain

Monad Labs, the team behind the Ethereum-compatible Layer 1 blockchain Monad, has successfully secured $225 million in a funding round led by Paradigm, boosting its valuation to $3 billion. This investment, supported by Electric Capital, Coinbase Ventures, and several other firms, along with notable angel investors, marks a significant step for Monad as it plans to scale its team and bring its platform to production. Unlike simply cloning Ethereum's codebase, Monad is creating a new Ethereum Virtual Machine designed to handle transactions in parallel, thus increasing efficiency and achieving instant block finality. This could potentially increase processing speed to 10,000 transactions per second, appealing to high-frequency trading markets. Monad's development has progressed to a live devnet, with a public testnet and mainnet launch expected later this year. This funding round follows a period of intensified interest in digital assets, highlighted by reports of Paradigm discussing a new crypto venture fund potentially exceeding $750 million.

Trading Desk Insights

Bitcoin exhibited a downward trend this morning as the market grapples with ongoing inflation fears and escalating geopolitical tensions. The $72,000 mark is proving to be a sturdy short-term resistance level. Despite today's pullback, the pattern of higher lows suggests that the overall bullish trend is still in play. There's potential for Bitcoin to dip towards the $68,000 to $66,000 range, yet these declines are generally seen as buying opportunities unless we breach these levels downward.

In terms of Bitcoin ETFs, the market observed a notable influx of $91.3 million yesterday, with BlackRock leading the charge, posting $192.1 million in inflows. Conversely, Grayscale saw substantial outflows totaling $124.9 million.

The broader stock market declined on Friday, influenced heavily by the commencement of the corporate earnings season by major U.S. banks, persistent inflation, and intensifying geopolitical unrest. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, highlighted the dual threats of enduring inflation and escalating global conflicts as key risks to an otherwise optimistic economic environment.

On the commodities front, oil prices saw an uptick following reports that Israel might face a direct attack from Iran over the weekend. This potential escalation in Middle East tensions, coupled with recent U.S. import data, has exacerbated the inflationary pressures already challenging the markets.

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Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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