August 14, 2024

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Coinbase Hints at Launch of Tokenized Bitcoin, cbBTC

Coinbase has hinted at the upcoming launch of a tokenized Bitcoin product, potentially named cbBTC, through a post on X. This product, which appears similar to Coinbase’s Ethereum staking derivative cbETH, will be backed 1:1 with actual Bitcoin held in custody. It may enable users to hold Bitcoin on Ethereum and Layer 2 chains, providing liquidity, especially within Base, Coinbase's incubated blockchain. This move positions cbBTC to compete with BitGo's Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), the largest tokenized Bitcoin product, which recently announced a joint venture with BiT Global to enhance its custody services. The partnership has raised security concerns, particularly due to potential centralization under BitGo and BiT Global, prompting MakerDAO to consider halting new borrowing against WBTC collateral.

Goldman Sachs Reveals $418 Million in Spot Bitcoin ETF Holdings as of June 30

Goldman Sachs disclosed in its quarterly 13F filing that it holds approximately $418.65 million in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF shares as of June 30. The largest portion of these holdings includes 6.9 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, valued at $238.6 million, making Goldman Sachs the third-largest holder of this fund. The bank also reported significant holdings in Fidelity’s FBTC, Grayscale’s Bitcoin fund, and Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, among others. These filings, required for institutional investment managers with over $100 million in equity assets, provide a glimpse into Goldman Sachs' investment in Bitcoin ETFs, though they do not reveal short positions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's value saw a 3% increase, trading at around $60,959.

July CPI Data Reveals Inflation Slowing to 2.9%, Lowest in Over Three Years

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in July, driven mainly by higher housing costs, marking a 2.9% annual increase, slightly below expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.2% monthly and 3.2% annually, in line with forecasts. This represents the lowest inflation rate since March 2021. However, Bitcoin fell nearly 1% following the report, as the core inflation rate above 3% suggests the Federal Reserve may not be ready to cut interest rates soon, which is seen as crucial for Bitcoin's potential upward momentum. Analysts believe that easing inflation could eventually lead to lower rates, making speculative assets like Bitcoin more attractive. Most economists anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in September if labor market data continues to weaken.

Trading Desk Insights

The crypto market's feeling the heat today, with some notable moves stirring the pot. Jump Trading is back at it, offloading ETH—17,049 $ETH to be exact, worth about $46.44M—after pulling it from Lido. Meanwhile, whispers in the market suggest the U.S. government recently shuffled around 10k BTC. With Bitcoin still stuck under its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, the bears are eyeing a further dip, targeting 57,500. If that level breaks, we could see pressure mount towards 55,000.

Switching gears, Goldman Sachs has been making waves, holding over $400 million in U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs. Not to be outdone, DRW Venture Capital just revealed a hefty $150 million stake in Ethereum ETFs.

On the innovation front, Coinbase is cooking up something big with a version of wBTC set to run on its layer-2 blockchain, Base. After teasing "cbBTC" online, Base’s Jesse Pollak hinted at ambitious plans to build a "massive bitcoin economy" on the network.

In the equity markets, futures nudged higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the latest inflation numbers. With the annual inflation rate dipping to 2.9%—the lowest since 2021—investors are feeling more optimistic. This drop from 3% in June has sparked hopes for a rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting, adding fuel to the recent buying spree following early August’s pullback.

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Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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