December 10, 2024

Trading Desk Insights

Bitcoin's trading pattern remains elusive, with recent leverage adjustments precipitating a significant 6% retracement from an intraday peak of 100,400 to a nadir of 94,300. This marked the steepest drop since October, shaving 6.5% off the overall market capitalization and triggering over $1.5 billion in liquidations of long positions, a record not seen since 2021. BTC trading volumes surged to approximately $21 billion during this period before receding to $4 billion. The broader market followed a similar trajectory, with volumes plummeting from $116 billion to $22 billion. Funding rates have since moderated, stabilizing around the midpoint of the spectrum, signaling a withdrawal of less disciplined, highly leveraged traders from the altcoin market.

In corporate developments, Microsoft shareholders have preliminarily rejected a proposal to allocate investment towards Bitcoin. The Nasdaq is set to announce its reconstitution on December 13th, with expectations that MicroStrategy, the leading corporate Bitcoin holder, will be incorporated into the index.

On the equities front, JPMorgan has adjusted its stance on several crypto-related stocks, upgrading Cipher Mining and CleanSpark to overweight, elevating MARA to neutral from underweight, and lowering IREN to neutral.

U.S. stock futures are exhibiting minimal movement, stabilizing after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite receded from their recent highs. Market participants are now poised for the forthcoming U.S. consumer price index data, anticipated on Wednesday, which could play a pivotal role in shaping the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions during its December 17-18 meeting.

The News Room

Riot Platforms to Raise $500M for Bitcoin Purchases Amid Price Rally

Riot Platforms plans to raise $500 million through a private bond offering to purchase additional Bitcoin and fund corporate activities, joining other major players in acquiring BTC at near all-time high prices. The unsecured senior convertible notes, maturing in 2030, can be redeemed or converted into Riot stock, with terms to be finalized at pricing. Riot, which currently holds 10,427 BTC, aligns with a trend among crypto mining firms, which collectively raised $5.2 billion through convertible bonds since June, with 70% of that occurring in the last month. Similar moves include MARA’s $1 billion issuance and MicroStrategy’s recent $2.1 billion BTC purchase.

Total Crypto Liquidations Reach $1.5 Billion as Bitcoin Falls Below $95K

Crypto liquidations surged to $1.51 billion in the past 24 hours, affecting 514,400 traders, with $1.38 billion in long positions and $136.7 million in short positions wiped out, per Coinglass data. Bitcoin briefly dipped to $94,900 before rebounding to $97,395, while bitcoin and ether liquidations totaled $163.4 million and $204.7 million, respectively. This follows $1.1 billion in liquidations on Dec. 5, marking the largest since 2021, amid a post-Trump-election rally that saw bitcoin hit an all-time high of $103,679 on Dec. 4.

MicroStrategy Adds 21,550 Bitcoin to Holdings in $2.1 Billion Purchase

MicroStrategy has acquired 21,550 bitcoin for $2.1 billion between Dec. 2 and Dec. 8, 2024, at an average price of $98,783 per coin. The purchases were funded by selling over 5.4 million company shares for $2.13 billion. The firm now holds 423,650 BTC, acquired at an average price of $60,324 per coin, with total expenditures nearing $25.6 billion. This marks the fifth consecutive week of major bitcoin purchases, coinciding with a 40% BTC price increase and a 20% rise in MicroStrategy’s stock, which has surged 480% year-to-date.

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Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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