December 17, 2024

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Trading Desk Insights

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Bitcoin (BTC) continues its relentless climb, setting another all-time high today at $108,400. The market sentiment remains bullish for the long-term, with projections hinting at a potential surge toward $200,000 next year. However, a glance at the options market suggests traders are adopting a more measured approach in the short term. Funding rates remain stable—a positive indicator—while open interest and trading volumes are ticking up gradually, staying within typical growth patterns.

The Federal Reserve is on deck tomorrow, widely anticipated to announce a 25bps rate cut. Recent economic data has not been inflationary enough to deter this path for December. Nevertheless, the Fed’s dot plot and forward guidance for 2025 may lean slightly hawkish, implying a deceleration in rate cuts for the year ahead.

In ETF news, U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs have overtaken gold ETFs in assets under management (AUM). Combined BTC ETFs (spot, futures, and leveraged) now manage $130 billion, surpassing the $128 billion held by gold ETFs.

On the meme coin front, Pudgy Penguins’ PENGU token debuted with a $2.3 billion market cap and $90 million in volume within the first hour of trading. Sentiment across meme coins is mixed, though larger-cap tokens are leading the pack.

Avalanche (AVAX) has benefited from its latest major upgrade, "Avalanche9000," which enhances cost-efficiency and simplifies the creation of subnets. AVAX is now up 105% since the U.S. election results.

Meanwhile, Ripple’s new stablecoin, RLUSD, begins trading today following approval from the New York State Department of Financial Services earlier this month. The stablecoin market cap has surged 50% this year, with a 15% uptick since the election. Tether’s USDT commands about 70% of the market, while Circle’s USDC holds 20%.

Market participants remain watchful as these dynamics unfold, positioning accordingly in a landscape shaped by both macroeconomic and crypto-specific catalysts.

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The News Room

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Key Crypto Trends Shaping the Middle East's Blockchain Future

The Middle East, particularly the UAE, is emerging as a global blockchain hub, with key trends including Shariah-compliant crypto services, dirham-pegged stablecoins, and the influx of international talent. At recent industry events, experts highlighted the UAE’s regulatory clarity and its role as a “springboard” for crypto adoption, attracting talent from regions like London and Asia-Pacific. Shariah compliance is a growing focus, especially for decentralized finance (DeFi), as it aligns with Islamic finance principles of profit-sharing. Additionally, dirham-pegged stablecoins are set to enhance local payment infrastructure, while the UAE continues to showcase blockchain innovation, though full Bitcoin adoption as legal tender remains a longer-term prospect.

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Tether backs European stablecoin firm StablR as USDT faces regulatory uncertainty

Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, has invested in Malta-based StablR to bolster its presence in Europe’s regulated stablecoin market amid upcoming MiCA regulations. StablR operates the euro-backed EURR, with a $3.4 million market cap, and the U.S. dollar-pegged USDR, both utilizing Tether’s Hadron tokenization platform. The European stablecoin market, valued at $367 million, is rapidly growing, with EURR representing 1% of euro-pegged stablecoins. StablR, backed by Deribit and others, holds an Electronic Money Institution license for compliant stablecoin issuance. The investment follows Tether’s suspension of its EURT stablecoin and Coinbase delisting USDT in Europe.

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Mt. Gox transfers $172M Bitcoin to new wallets as BTC nears $107K

Bankrupt crypto exchange Mt. Gox transferred 1,620 BTC worth $172.5 million to unknown wallets on Dec. 17, just days after Bitcoin hit a new high near $108,000. The move, tracked by Arkham Intelligence, follows a larger transfer of over 24,000 BTC earlier this month. While the purpose remains unclear, such transactions have historically preceded creditor payouts. Mt. Gox still holds around 36,085 BTC valued at $3.86 billion. Despite these transfers, Bitcoin remained steady, trading near $106,500. The trustee recently extended the creditor repayment deadline to October 31, 2025, citing incomplete payout procedures.

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Crypto Charts

ETF Flow

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Disclaimer

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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

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