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El Salvador to Relax Bitcoin Mandate in Bid to Secure $3B Loan Package
El Salvador plans to make accepting bitcoin as legal tender optional rather than mandatory to secure $3 billion in loans, including $1.3 billion from the IMF and $1 billion each from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank, according to the Financial Times. The IMF has long opposed El Salvador’s bitcoin mandate, citing financial stability risks. President Nayib Bukele, who introduced the policy in 2021, recently acknowledged limited adoption domestically. As part of the loan deal, El Salvador will also reduce its budget deficit, strengthen anti-corruption measures, and increase reserves.
Iran Shifts Strategy to Regulate Crypto Industry, Easing Restrictions
Iran plans to regulate cryptocurrencies rather than limit their use, aiming to harness their economic benefits while mitigating risks, according to Finance Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati. Speaking at a national event, Hemmati emphasized leveraging crypto to boost youth employment, counter U.S. sanctions, and align Iran with the global economy. The Central Bank of Iran also released a framework supporting compliance with tax and anti-money laundering laws. Iranian investors hold an estimated $30–$50 billion in crypto assets, highlighting its growing significance in the country’s economy. This regulatory shift coincides with optimism for pro-crypto policies under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Surpass Satoshi's Estimated 1.1 Million BTC Holdings
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have collectively surpassed the estimated 1.1 million BTC held by Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, marking a significant milestone with over $33 billion in net inflows and $100 billion in assets under management. Leading products like BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s GBTC have contributed to this achievement, driven by Bitcoin’s 130% rally in 2023. While Satoshi’s holdings, thought to be mined in Bitcoin's early days, remain unspent and estimated at $100 billion in value, ETFs have quickly become a dominant force in Bitcoin ownership, reflecting growing institutional adoption.
Trading Desk Insights
As we initiate this week’s trading, the cryptocurrency landscape presents a subdued outlook, with Bitcoin retreating from the recent $100,000 threshold. Despite an overarching bullish sentiment within the market, we anticipate a consolidation phase in the immediate term. The inability of Bitcoin to sustain levels above $100,000 raises concerns about the momentum necessary for a continued ascent and has exerted downward pressure on the broader altcoin market. A period of lateral movement could serve to alleviate the current overbought conditions, setting the stage for a more sustained upward trajectory. On a positive note, MicroStrategy has expanded its Bitcoin holdings, acquiring an additional 21,550 BTC for $2.1 billion.
Turning our attention to corporate activities influencing the sector, there is increasing pressure on Amazon from its shareholders to emulate MicroStrategy by allocating part of its substantial cash reserves into Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a potential catalyst for enhancing shareholder value. As of the close of the third quarter, Amazon reported assets totaling $585 billion, with liquid assets comprising $88 billion.
Analyzing the derivatives landscape, Bitcoin’s options market is signaling resistance near the $120,000 level, marked by significant open interest at this strike price, totaling approximately $1.93 billion. Further optimism is noted at the $200,000 strike, where $500 million in open interest suggests expectations for price doubling. The focal point of this speculative activity centers around the expiries of June 2025 and September 2025.
In the broader financial markets, U.S. stock futures edged lower, following three consecutive weeks of gains in the equity markets. This comes in anticipation of pivotal inflation data expected later in the week. Sector-specific developments saw Nvidia’s share price decline amid investigations by Chinese regulatory bodies into potential antitrust violations. With the Federal Reserve entering a blackout period ahead of its forthcoming policy meeting, the market is poised for the release of the November CPI data on Wednesday, which could provide critical insights into future monetary policy. On the international front, China has committed to intensifying fiscal initiatives and relaxing monetary policies to stimulate domestic consumption. Additionally, significant geopolitical shifts have occurred with the recent overthrow of the Syrian government by rebel forces, an event that may have far-reaching implications for both regional stability and international markets.
Crypto Charts
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.
Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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