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Crypto investors appear to be on the sidelines, waiting for a bullish catalyst amidst the mixed signals in the market. The BTC Volatility Index (DVOL) on Deribit has been on a downward trajectory since the beginning of the year, dropping from a peak of 71 to around 49. Open interest and trading volume saw a notable uptick yesterday, though there was a slight pullback today. Prices continue to trade below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the RSI being constrained by a descending trendline, indicating a bearish bias. A shift in these technical indicators is necessary to move back into a bullish phase.
Despite the current technical setup, Bitcoin still maintains its dominance in the market, while altcoins continue to suffer. The market cap of assets outside the top 10 has dropped over 40% since December's highs.
Meanwhile, the Libra token saga continues to unfold, with co-creator Hayden Davis boasting about gaining access to Argentine President Javier Milei’s inner circle ahead of the memecoin's launch. Davis claimed in December that he could influence Milei’s sister, further complicating the project’s narrative.
In the institutional space, Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, plans to raise an additional $2 billion through the sale of zero-coupon convertible notes. The proceeds will primarily be allocated towards further Bitcoin acquisitions.
On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump suggested the possibility of expanding U.S. tariffs to include automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.
In a more positive development, the BTC rewards platform Fold Holdings went public on Wednesday through a SPAC merger. As a result, Fold joins the ranks of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, now holding 1,000 BTC valued at $96 million. After an initial 30% surge in share price, the stock experienced a significant pullback, giving up a portion of those early gains.
The News Room
Nasdaq Proposes Rule Change to Enable Trading of Digital Asset-Based Investments
Nasdaq has submitted a 19b-4 filing proposing Nasdaq Rule 5712, which would allow the listing and trading of digital asset-based investment interests, including securities issued by entities holding digital assets and commodity-based investments. The proposal also seeks to shift the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF to this new rule. The move aligns with SEC efforts under acting Chair Mark Uyeda to clarify crypto regulations, supported by Commissioner Hester Peirce’s crypto task force. The proposal follows Nasdaq’s January rule change suggestion for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust to permit in-kind redemptions.
Hong Kong Explores Token Listings, Derivatives, and Staking Amid Rising Global Competition
Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has announced 12 initiatives to strengthen its crypto industry, including potential new token listings, crypto derivatives, and staking regulations. The roadmap also includes licensing regimes for OTC crypto trading and custodial services to enhance transparency and security. Currently, only Bitcoin and Ethereum are available for retail trading, but the SFC is considering expanding listings for professional investors. The regulator will also explore crypto derivatives and staking frameworks, aiming to boost liquidity, risk management, and investor participation in blockchain-based finance.
Utah’s Bitcoin Reserve Bill Moves Forward to Senate Standing Committee
Utah’s H.B. 230 bill, also known as the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill, has moved to the Senate Revenue and Taxation Committee after passing the House 8-1 last month. Proposed by Rep. Jordan Teuscher, the bill would authorize the state treasurer to allocate up to 5% of public funds into Bitcoin or stablecoins, with eligibility requiring a $500 billion+ market cap over the past year. If enacted, the law would take effect on May 7, 2025. Utah joins 11 other states considering similar legislation, reflecting growing state-level interest in Bitcoin investments.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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