February 24, 2025

Trading Desk Insights

Despite the unprecedented hack of Bybit, which saw a staggering $1.46bn in ETH stolen, the market has shown surprising resilience. We anticipate ongoing volatility as the hackers attempt to launder the stolen funds. BTC saw a 5% decline, while ETH dropped 8% before finding some upward momentum. BTC spot volume has decreased over the weekend, but funding rates remain positive. Since this morning, open interest has risen by 3%, matching Saturday's peak. ETH, on the other hand, had a solid rebound over the weekend with rising spot volume and open interest jumping 16%. However, both metrics have been trending down since last night, with funding rates turning negative.

Raydium (RAY) saw a sharp 30% drop following news that Pump.fun will be launching their own AMM pools. This development could potentially siphon off some of Raydium’s market share, as Pump.fun’s “bonding curve” mechanism allows for tokens to be launched on Raydium once they gain sufficient trading activity.

Solana whales are showing increasing interest in bearish options trades, particularly in the wake of a price dip and the upcoming unlock of billions of dollars in SOL. Last week, nearly 25% of the total options activity in SOL was attributed to block trades, with a strong preference for put options.

On the macro front, last Friday saw a significant drop in risk assets, with the Nasdaq taking a hit. U.S. consumer sentiment fell more than expected in February, dropping to a 15-month low, while long-term inflation expectations reached their highest level in nearly three decades. This came amid concerns over President Trump's proposed tariffs, which could reduce household purchasing power.

In other updates, the SEC has closed its investigation into Robinhood Crypto with no further action. Additionally, Strategy has acquired 20,356 BTC for $1.99B at an average price of $97,514 per Bitcoin.

The News Room

Strategy Acquires 20,356 Bitcoin for Nearly $2B, Nears 500K BTC Milestone

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has acquired 20,356 Bitcoin for $1.99 billion at an average price of $97,514 per BTC, bringing its total holdings to 499,096 BTC. The purchase follows a $2 billion convertible note offering as part of its "21/21 Plan", aiming to raise $42 billion over three years for Bitcoin acquisitions. Despite a $670 million Q4 loss, Strategy now holds an unrealized profit of $14.8 billion on its Bitcoin. BlackRock recently increased its stake to 5%, and 12 U.S. states hold $330 million in Strategy stock in pension funds or treasuries.

Hong Kong Investment Firm’s Board Approves Additional Bitcoin Purchases

HK Asia Holdings Limited has expanded its Bitcoin holdings to 8.88 BTC after purchasing 7.88 BTC for ~$761,705 on Feb. 20, following its board’s approval for further investment. The move comes after its stock nearly doubled when it bought its first Bitcoin on Feb. 16, sparking investor interest. Shares rose another 5.7% on Feb. 24, bringing the firm’s year-to-date gains to 1,700%. HK Asia cited the growing popularity of crypto as a factor in its decision, joining a rising trend of publicly traded firms investing in Bitcoin.

US Bitcoin ETFs See $1.14B Outflows in Two Weeks as US-China Trade Tensions Escalate

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their largest-ever two-week outflows, totaling $1.14 billion by Feb. 21, as US-China trade tensions and monetary policy concerns weighed on investor sentiment. The sell-off surpassed the previous $1.12 billion outflow seen in June 2024. Despite short-term withdrawals, long-term ETF flows remain positive, with institutional investors like the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund and Wisconsin’s Pension Fund maintaining BTC positions. Investors now await Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi Jinping, which could influence future market sentiment.

ETF Flow

Crypto Charts

Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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