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Bitcoin has experienced continued weakness over the last 24 hours, following a record-breaking $1 billion in ETF outflows, marking the highest figure for 2025. This decline in ETF demand is largely driven by a drop in the premium of CME-listed bitcoin futures, diminishing the attractiveness of cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies. The returns from these strategies are now barely outpacing those of the U.S. 10-year Treasury, with the annualized one-month basis in CME BTC futures plummeting to 4%—a two-year low, compared to nearly 15% in December.
Short-term holders, reacting to market conditions, have offloaded the most BTC to exchanges at a loss since August, totaling $3.9 billion. As a result, the total crypto market capitalization has declined by nearly $1 trillion from its December 2024 peak. Investors are now looking ahead to Nvidia’s earnings this afternoon and the PCE data on Friday for further market direction.
This week’s $5 billion bitcoin options expiry, scheduled for Friday, reveals that most of the open interest is concentrated in out-of-the-money (OTM) options. The max pain point for BTC sits at $98,000—well above the current spot price—suggesting market makers and options sellers may drive prices higher as they seek to align with the highest open interest.
On the macroeconomic side, the optimism that followed the Nov. 4 election is beginning to fade, as demonstrated by Tuesday’s U.S. consumer confidence data. The index fell to an eight-month low, while one-year inflation expectations hit their highest levels in 1.5 years, with concerns over President Trump's tariffs cited as the key issue.
The News Room
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record $1 Billion in Outflows, Marking Largest Single-Day Withdrawal
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest-ever single-day net outflows on Tuesday, totaling $1.01 billion, excluding Ark Invest’s ARKB. Over the past six days, these ETFs have lost more than $2 billion in total outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC led with $344.65 million in withdrawals, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT with $164.3 million. The massive outflows coincided with bitcoin’s drop to a yearly low of around $88,000, with analysts attributing the sell-off to institutional rebalancing, profit-taking, and macroeconomic concerns such as U.S.-China trade tensions and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Despite short-term volatility, experts note that long-term supply-demand dynamics, including bitcoin’s post-halving impact, could support future price stability.
SEC Ends Uniswap Labs Investigation as Crypto-Friendly Stance Gains Momentum
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has ended its investigation into Uniswap Labs without taking enforcement action, the firm announced Tuesday. The SEC had previously alleged that Uniswap’s decentralized exchange functioned as an unregistered securities exchange and broker-dealer. The decision follows similar dropped cases against Coinbase, OpenSea, and Robinhood, signaling a shift in the agency’s crypto stance under Acting Chair Mark T. Uyeda. Republican Commissioner Hester Peirce’s newly formed "crypto task force" is reportedly engaging with industry representatives to develop clearer regulatory guidelines.
MicroStrategy Stock Drops 16% YTD as Bitcoin Declines
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has seen its stock decline 16% year-to-date as Bitcoin’s correction continues, with BTC falling below $90,000. Despite concerns over its debt-fueled Bitcoin buying spree, analysts remain optimistic, citing the firm’s ability to generate "Bitcoin yield." Benchmark recently raised its price target for Strategy to $650, emphasizing its aggressive capital-raising strategy. While Strategy holds an unrealized $10 billion profit on its BTC holdings, analysts note that a sustained 50% drop in Bitcoin’s price would be required to force liquidation.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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