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Market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space has been largely negative, influenced by the largest hack in crypto history and the ongoing memecoin hype siphoning liquidity from the broader market. It's clear that while crypto-friendly policies are being discussed, it will take time for them to translate into actual legal frameworks. Meanwhile, the decrease in BTC volatility combined with declining prices signals that investors aren't anticipating any significant price rallies in the short term.
From a technical standpoint, BTC's recent bounce from the 200-day moving average, coupled with the RSI returning from oversold territory, suggests we may have seen a short-term bottom. However, this could be a classic "dead cat bounce," where prices recover to the previous support zone—now acting as resistance—around the 91,300 to 94,000 range before potentially pulling back again. As for ETH, it's sitting right on the rising trendline that has held since Summer 2022, presenting an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
On the macroeconomic front, expectations are for slower economic growth next year. In response, the market is pricing in a half-point interest rate cut from the Fed this year, with probabilities of 24% for May 7th, 68% for June 18th, and 78% for July 30th. This suggests that the central bank will ease monetary policy as economic activity slows.
In corporate news, Nvidia posted Q4 revenue of $39.3 billion, surpassing expectations by 2.7%, with EPS of $0.89 exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.84. The company also provided robust forward guidance, driven by strong demand in the AI sector and record-high sales in its automotive segment, particularly in driver-assist technologies. Nvidia shares are up 3% in premarket trading and remain 14% shy of their record highs.
In political developments, former President Trump announced that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on April 2nd, along with a 25% duty on EU goods and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Market participants are cautioning about the potential inflationary impact these trade measures could have.
The News Room
SEC to Drop Case Against MetaMask, Says Consensys Founder Lubin
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has agreed "in principle" to end its enforcement case against MetaMask, Consensys founder Joseph Lubin announced Thursday. The SEC will file a stipulation with the court to officially close the case, pending Commission approval. The lawsuit, filed last June, accused Consensys of violating securities laws through MetaMask’s staking service. The decision reflects a broader shift in U.S. regulatory policy under President Donald Trump, who has pledged a more crypto-friendly approach.
SEC Closes Investigation Into Crypto Exchange Gemini, Cameron Winklevoss Says
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has closed its investigation into crypto exchange Gemini and will not pursue enforcement action, Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss announced Wednesday. The move follows a broader regulatory shift under the Trump administration, with the SEC recently dropping cases against Coinbase, OpenSea, Robinhood, and Uniswap. Winklevoss criticized the previous SEC administration for stifling innovation and causing significant financial losses to the crypto industry. Meanwhile, Gemini is reportedly considering an initial public offering later this year.
MARA Holdings, formerly Marathon Digital, posted fourth-quarter revenue of $214.4 million, surpassing estimates of $186 million, with full-year revenue rising 69% to $656.4 million. The company mined 9,430 BTC in 2024, down 27% year-over-year, and holds 44,893 BTC. MARA expanded its hash rate by 115% to 53.2 EH/s and is shifting toward AI and high-performance computing infrastructure. CEO Fred Thiel emphasized the firm's strategy to lead in energy management and scalable AI inference. Shares closed at $12.45, up 3.2% after-hours but down 57% over the past year.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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