January 06, 2025

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Trading Desk Insights

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What a way to kick off the year.

Bitcoin has broken through key resistance at $99,500 and surged another 3% to hit a session high of $102,500. Prices are now trading above the 20-day moving average, signaling a potential return to bullish momentum. The MACD has crossed above the signal line, further confirming the positive outlook.

In the ETF space, Bitcoin saw strong inflows of $908.1 million, led by BlackRock, while Ethereum attracted $58.9 million.

On the exchange side, Coinglass reports a substantial $227.21 million net inflow into centralized exchanges last week in Solana (SOL), marking the largest inflow since mid-March. This could indicate that holders are positioning for potential sales.

In company news, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has purchased an additional $101 million in Bitcoin, marking its ninth consecutive week of adding to its holdings. Brokers are adjusting by raising margin requirements on MSTR, and rumors are circulating that hedge funds have gone short MSTR while going long on BTC, setting up the potential for volatility if positions unwind.

Finally, Uniswap's layer-2 blockchain, Unichain, begins its transition to mainnet, a major development for the decentralized exchange.

On the political front, Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, has officially resigned.

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The News Room

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MicroStrategy Purchases 1,070 Bitcoin for $101 Million, Total Holdings Reach 447,470 BTC

MicroStrategy has expanded its Bitcoin holdings by acquiring an additional 1,070 BTC for approximately $101 million, bringing its total to 447,470 BTC valued at over $44 billion. This purchase follows the sale of 319,586 MicroStrategy shares to support its ongoing $21 billion equity and fixed-income securities offering aimed at further Bitcoin acquisitions. With an average cost of around $62,503 per Bitcoin, the company now holds approximately 2.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Over the past nine weeks, MicroStrategy has amassed more than $18 billion in Bitcoin, solidifying its position as a leading corporate holder. Despite investor concerns about the premium to Bitcoin’s net asset value and the sustainability of its equity and debt-funded acquisition strategy, analysts at Bernstein anticipate continued growth in corporate Bitcoin adoption in 2025, with MicroStrategy expected to drive demand. Concurrently, MicroStrategy’s stock has surged over 431% in the past year, reflecting strong market confidence in its Bitcoin investment strategy.

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BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Sees First Two-Week Streak of Net Outflows

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, has experienced its first consecutive weekly net outflows over the past two shortened weeks. While the broader U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $245 million last week, IBIT recorded negative outflows, including its largest single-day outflow since its inception. Despite these outflows, IBIT maintains a substantial net asset value (NAV) of $54.3 billion, significantly surpassing competitors like Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC, each with around $20 billion in NAV. On Friday, IBIT received $253 million in inflows, indicating a possible reversal of the outflow trend. Meanwhile, U.S.-based spot Ethereum ETFs reported modest weekly net outflows of $38 million, their first loss since mid-November. However, these outflows are minor compared to the over $2.5 billion in inflows over the past six weeks, supported by Ether’s 30% price increase since early November. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) performed better, logging nearly $216 million in net inflows over the past two weeks.

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Digital Sovereignty Alliance Launches to Champion Ethical Crypto Policies in U.S. Senate and House of Representatives

The Digital Sovereignty Alliance (DSA) officially launched in Washington, D.C., on January 6, 2025, as a nonprofit dedicated to promoting ethical public policies, research, and education in emerging technologies such as blockchain, cryptocurrency, Web3, and artificial intelligence. Focused on enhancing public understanding and governance of decentralized technologies, DSA emphasizes ethics, transparency, and digital sovereignty through comprehensive research, educational events, and policy advocacy. Led by Director Adrian Wall, the organization aims to foster bipartisan dialogue and support legislation that balances innovation with societal benefits. DSA is backed by industry leaders, including TRON DAO and its founder Justin Sun, who highlighted the alliance’s role in advancing crucial crypto legislation like FIT21 and DCPPA. By partnering with key stakeholders, DSA seeks to create a regulatory framework that encourages responsible technology adoption and supports the healthy growth of the digital assets industry.

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Crypto Charts

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Disclaimer

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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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