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Trump's Growing Crypto Enthusiasm May Boost His Voter Appeal
A Paradigm-sponsored poll indicates that former President Donald Trump's recent pro-cryptocurrency stance might attract some Republican voters who were previously hesitant to support him. The poll, conducted by Echelon Insights, found that 13% of Republicans who weren't initially planning to vote for Trump now view him more favorably due to his positive remarks on the U.S. crypto sector. Additionally, 60% of respondents believe Congress should regulate crypto businesses. The poll, which surveyed over a thousand likely GOP voters, also revealed that 28% had engaged in crypto ownership, with younger, male, and non-white demographics being more involved. This shift in Trump's position could influence the tight race between him and President Joe Biden, especially as crypto becomes a more significant factor for voters.
Bitcoin's Correlation with US Equities Hits Multi-Month Low
Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities has sharply declined since early June, reaching multi-month lows with a 30-day Pearson correlation of -0.84 to the Nasdaq and -0.82 to the S&P 500, according to The Block. This decoupling occurs amid buoyant equity markets ahead of Thursday’s U.S. CPI inflation reading, with economists predicting a slight drop in the year-over-year headline figure for June. Bitcoin's price has dropped from $71,000 to a tight range of $58,000-$59,000, while stock futures and European indices have seen gains. The divergence is attributed to recent sell-pressure events, including government-held bitcoin sales and Mt. Gox asset distributions. YouHodler's Chief of Markets Russian Lienkha anticipates a price recovery and sees trading opportunities in the current bitcoin-equity market divergence.
Hamster Kombat Surges to 239M Users in Just 81 Days
Telegram founder Pavel Durov believes Hamster Kombat’s viral success could onboard over 200 million people to blockchain technology. Launched in March 2024, the game has attracted over 200 million players and reached 100 million monthly users in just 73 days. Durov highlighted the game's rapid growth, with 4-5 million new users daily. Hamster Kombat plans to launch its token on the TON blockchain, further integrating blockchain technology for its massive user base. The game’s success has led to Guinness World Records applications and significant social media growth, with millions of subscribers and followers across YouTube, X, and Telegram.
Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin is striving to rebound amidst persistent short selling after each rally. The key level to watch is $60,500, a breach of which would signify a return to bullish territory. Earlier today, the German Federal Criminal Police Office transferred 10,853 BTC, valued at $637 million, to exchanges and market makers. This is part of their ongoing strategy to liquidate BTC seized from a privacy website. They currently hold 13,360 BTC worth $785 million, accounting for 26.8% of the Bitcoin initially confiscated from Movie2k. Since the state commenced selling BTC in mid-June, they have offloaded 30,997 BTC, significantly impacting the crypto market. Bitcoin has depreciated over 15% in the past month, with a recent low of $53,500 last week.
In the U.S. BTC ETFs sector, we observed robust inflows totaling $216.4 million, with BlackRock leading the charge at $121 million.
TIA has surged 25% in the past week, suggesting a potential reversal of its five-month downtrend. Despite this, traders continue to short TIA futures, which could set the stage for a short squeeze if the rally persists. Over the weekend, funding rates turned negative, hitting lows not seen since January.
Additionally, the CFTC Chairman announced that an Illinois court has classified Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities, a favorable development for the industry.
On the equities front, futures have hit a new record high, marking the 36th record close in 2024. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns on Tuesday about the risks of maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, which could hinder economic growth. The market anticipates the Fed will start reducing rates in September, with a subsequent quarter-point cut likely by year-end. However, FOMC members in their June meeting projected only one rate cut for the remainder of the year.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.
Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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