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Prices for out-of-the-money bitcoin options are rising ahead of former U.S. President Donald Trump's appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. Analysts suggest that a positive statement from Trump about bitcoin could trigger a price surge for the digital asset. Bitcoin options implied volatility has increased from 53% to 67% over the past week, reflecting heightened market anticipation. Additional factors contributing to the volatility include expectations of inflows from spot bitcoin ETFs and upcoming U.S. economic reports. Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,888.
Mt. Gox Transfers $2.8 Billion in Bitcoin to New Address: Arkham
A Mt. Gox-linked wallet transferred 42,587.49 BTC ($2.82 billion) to a new address on Tuesday, as part of the ongoing repayment to creditors. Additionally, 5,110.16 BTC was moved to a cold storage address, and 2,238.87 BTC ($150 million) was transferred to Bitstamp, signaling imminent distribution. Bitstamp and other selected exchanges like Kraken, Bitbank, and SBI VC Trade are set to handle these repayments. Mt. Gox, which filed for bankruptcy in 2014 after losing 850,000 BTC to hacks, continues its efforts to repay creditors. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price dropped 1.82% to $66,491.
Grayscale Transfers $1B in ETH to Coinbase Ahead of Ether ETF Launch
Grayscale transferred $1 billion worth of Ether to Coinbase on July 22, ahead of the first spot Ether ETFs launching in the U.S. on July 23. This transfer represents about 10% of the 292,000 ETH, signaling Grayscale's preparation for the ETF launch. Coinbase will be the custodian for eight of the nine new Ether ETFs. The SEC approved the necessary regulatory filings for these ETFs, which include issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity. Institutional interest in Ether has surged, with expectations that the ETFs could double Ether's price within the next six months.
Trading Desk Insights
BTC has dipped this morning, primarily due to movements involving Mt. Gox and US Government-held coins. The Mt. Gox estate has shifted a substantial $3 billion, with $300 million moved internally and the remainder transferred to external wallets. Currently, Mt. Gox's balance stands at $6 billion, down from $10 billion in June.
On a positive note, US BTC ETFs experienced significant net inflows of $533.6 million on Monday, likely in anticipation of the newly approved ETH ETFs by the SEC, which have begun trading today.
The launch of spot ETH ETFs is an exciting development, with hopes high that it will attract a broader investor base for ETH. Similar to the spot BTC ETFs that debuted in January, many of these ETFs are waiving fees for up to a year. While BTC is often seen as digital gold, ETH is viewed more as a tech play. Investors are keeping a close eye on Grayscale's $9 billion ETH Trust, amid concerns that Grayscale's potential selling pressure could offset the positive impact of the new inflows, at least initially. The big question now is whether these new ETFs can replicate the success of the BTC ETFs from January.
Meanwhile, stock futures are relatively steady as traders brace for earnings reports from major companies, following the benchmark's best day in over a month. Earnings season is underway, with Tesla and Alphabet set to report after the market closes on Tuesday. These reports will provide the first glimpse into the performance of major tech-related companies in the second quarter, and could have significant market implications.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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