March 6, 2025

Trading Desk Insights

Cryptocurrency has outpaced the broader equity markets over the past week. This rally appears to be driven by speculation surrounding a potential announcement from President Trump regarding a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve at Friday's White House crypto summit. Bitcoin's market dominance remains steady between 61% and 62%, a typical range during periods of market uncertainty, while Ethereum's share has plummeted to a five-year low of 9%. This trend signals potential headwinds for altcoins, as capital inflows are predominantly flowing into Bitcoin.

However, altcoin investors may catch a break, as substantial global liquidity is expected to flow into the markets. China plans to issue over $250 billion in special treasury bonds, while Germany is positioning itself for defense and infrastructure spending exceeding $1 trillion. For Bitcoin, the key catalyst remains global liquidity inflows.

There are also unverified reports indicating that the SEC's Crypto Task Force is preparing to host a series of roundtable discussions, titled "Spring Sprint Towards Crypto Clarity," with industry participants. The first of these five sessions is scheduled for March 21 at the SEC's Washington D.C. offices.

Volatility is on the rise across the board, from Bitcoin volatility (BVIV) to equity market volatility (VIX) and U.S. Treasury volatility (MOVE index). Additionally, the yield curve has inverted once again, with the spread between the U.S. 10-year and three-month Treasuries turning negative, signaling potential market risks ahead.

SUI, a layer-1 blockchain, saw significant price movement following a strategic partnership with World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a decentralized finance protocol linked to Trump. As part of the deal, WLFI will integrate Sui assets into its crypto portfolio and explore new product development avenues.

Meanwhile, equity futures faced downward pressure Thursday as investors awaited further clarity on the latest U.S. tariff policies. The market received a temporary boost Wednesday after the White House announced a one-month delay on tariffs for automakers meeting the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement criteria. At the same time, a series of economic reports raised concerns that President Trump's policies could be a drag on the U.S. economy, particularly as Friday's jobs report approaches.

In the labor market, layoff announcements surged dramatically, with U.S. employers reporting 172,017 job cuts in February—up 245% from January and the highest monthly tally since July 2020. Notably, over a third of these cuts stemmed from efforts by Elon Musk’s ventures to trim federal staff headcount.

The News Room

World Liberty Financial amasses millions in ETH, WBTC, and MOVE ahead of White House Crypto Summit

World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance venture linked to President Donald Trump, has expanded its cryptocurrency holdings ahead of the White House Crypto Summit, acquiring over $25 million in assets. On-chain data shows the firm purchased $10 million in ether, $10 million in Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), and $1.5 million in MOVE, the native token of Movement Network. Ethereum holdings surged from 2,200 ETH to over 7,000 ETH within the week. The timing aligns with Friday’s summit, where Trump will meet crypto industry leaders to discuss regulation and a potential U.S. strategic crypto reserve. Market sentiment turned bullish, with Bitcoin rising over 3% to $91,380, while analysts await further regulatory clarity from the summit.

Bitwise files S-1 for Aptos ETF as demand for altcoin-based funds grows

Bitwise has filed an S-1 registration with the SEC for a spot Aptos ETF, following its recent registration of the "Bitwise Aptos ETF" entity in Delaware. The move comes as interest in altcoin-based ETFs grows under a more crypto-friendly U.S. regulatory landscape. Bitwise has also filed for Dogecoin and XRP ETFs. Previously, the firm launched an Aptos Staking ETP on six Swiss exchanges, while 21Shares introduced a similar product on Euronext Amsterdam and Paris.

Trump’s Silence on Crypto in Congress Speech Signals It’s Not a Priority, Says TD Cowen

TD Cowen says Trump’s omission of crypto in his Congress speech signals it is not a personal priority, despite his recent engagement with the industry. Analyst Jaret Seiberg noted that while Trump has hyped crypto before investors, the absence of any mention in Congress suggests it is not central to his political agenda. Seiberg speculated that Trump’s silence may be a strategic move to avoid interfering with congressional efforts on stablecoin legislation. The White House's first Crypto Summit, led by Trump’s crypto czar David Sacks, is set for Friday, with industry leaders expected to attend.

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Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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