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The long-awaited news has arrived, but it may not be the bullish catalyst we had anticipated. Late Thursday, the President signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile. The timing aligns with today’s White House Crypto Summit, where President Trump is scheduled to join a roundtable discussion on cryptocurrency policy at 3pm ET. This marks the U.S. government’s formal recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
However, the order specifies that the reserve will consist of coins already held by the government, without outlining any specific acquisition strategy or schedule for additional Bitcoin purchases. This lack of clarity has left market participants disappointed, leading to the bearish price action we've seen. Despite this, the move signals a growing acceptance of Bitcoin, which should bolster confidence in the asset from both corporate and governmental entities.
On the broader market front, the latest developments on President Trump’s tariff policies failed to ease investor concerns, pushing the Nasdaq into correction territory—closing more than 10% off its recent peak. Trump granted temporary tariff exemptions for Canadian and Mexican goods under the North American trade agreement until April 2nd. Meanwhile, job growth came in weaker than expected, and unemployment rose in February as the Trump administration reduced the federal workforce.
In the interest rate market, expectations have shifted to reflect the likelihood of three rate cuts this year, up from the previous consensus of just one. However, this outlook may be overly optimistic, as the Federal Reserve is likely to focus on assessing the long-term impact of Trump’s policies on inflation. This analysis could take several months, if not longer, to fully materialize.
In other updates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook at the University of Chicago around 12:30pm ET, which could provide further market direction.
The News Room
Coinbase exec says Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could remove about $18 billion of sell-side pressure
Coinbase executive Conor Grogan said President Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could remove about $18 billion in sell-side pressure by keeping the U.S. government’s 198,109 BTC holdings off the market. The reserve, established via an executive order, will store confiscated Bitcoin as a long-term asset, similar to a "digital Fort Knox," according to White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks. Bitcoin dropped 5% following the announcement, trading at $85,798.
Bitcoin derivatives market surges as traders position ahead of White House crypto summit
Bitcoin derivatives traders are increasing leveraged positions and boosting open interest ahead of Friday’s White House Crypto Summit, anticipating potential market-moving announcements. Analysts note a resurgence in liquidity, rising funding rates, and heightened implied volatility in options markets, signaling bullish sentiment. CryptoQuant data shows a recovery in perpetual futures market funding rates and a positive shift in 24-hour open interest, reflecting traders' expectations of a major announcement regarding the U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve.
JPMorgan Says XRP, SOL, and ADA Inclusion in US Crypto Reserve ‘Would Be Difficult’
JPMorgan sees less than a 50% chance of a U.S. strategic crypto reserve gaining approval, citing congressional hurdles. The bank argues that including XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) would be difficult due to concerns over risk and volatility, with Bitcoin and Ethereum being the only likely candidates. The report also highlights skepticism from central banks and past failures of similar state-level bitcoin reserve proposals. Meanwhile, crypto markets face pressure from record ETF outflows and increased short bets, with JPMorgan analysts warning of limited near-term positive catalysts.
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Crypto Charts
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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