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There’s no doubt that the softer CPI print helped to bolster US equities as tech stocks are on the rise. BTC is mostly flat since that reading despite some volatility in certain alts like HYPE following the liquidity drain attack which led to a net outflow of $166 million in AUM. ETH has continued to disappoint the whole family. The underperformance vs BTC reached a new multi year low at 0.022, the lowest figure since May 2020 when ETH was trading around $200.
Looking at price action, BTC was about to break above the 200-day moving average, a sign of a potential rebound ahead, but clearly it had other plans. That level located around 84,000 is our short term target in order for the bulls to start marching back to $90,000. The next resistance is located around $95,000, but we’ll deal with that when we get there.
Lots of chatter online about quarter-end rebalancing in the TradFi market. Given that the equity market is down big while the 10-year yields are higher and we’re approaching the end of the quarter, there are definitely a few funds out there that need to rebalance by buying equities and selling bonds to maintain a specific asset allocation mix.
The tariff war continues in full force. Trump threatens to hit back against EU’s retaliatory tariffs on 26 billion euros worth of U.S. goods starting in April. Trump took to his Truth Social platform to threaten 200% tariffs on all alcoholic products coming from countries in the EU in retaliation for the bloc’s 50% tariff on whisky.
In other news, Solana’s proposal SIMD-0228, aiming to reduce SOL's inflation rate, has seen only 55% of validators vote, of which only 38% voted in favor. If it goes through, it could reduce SOL's inflation rate from 4.5% to around 0.9%, potentially raising prices along the way, but reducing staking rewards which might affect the network’s decentralization.
The News Room
Ripple Gains Regulatory Approval to Tap UAE's $40 Billion Cross-Border Payments Market
Ripple has secured regulatory approval to offer crypto payment services in Dubai’s International Finance Center (DIFC), marking its first license in the Middle East. As the first blockchain payments provider licensed by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Ripple aims to capitalize on the UAE’s $40 billion cross-border payments market, citing high demand for efficient settlements and stablecoin adoption. CEO Brad Garlinghouse highlighted the UAE’s supportive crypto environment as a key factor for growth. Meanwhile, Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC may soon conclude, amid the agency’s shift toward a more crypto-friendly stance under President Trump’s administration.
Russia Central Bank Proposes Opening Crypto Trading for Select Local Investors
The Central Bank of Russia has proposed a three-year experimental program allowing qualified investors and companies to trade cryptocurrencies. Investors must meet high financial thresholds to participate, and regulatory requirements for financial organizations will be established. While the initiative signals a shift towards crypto adoption, the central bank maintains that crypto is not recognized as a legal payment method. The move comes as Russia explores using digital assets to bypass Western sanctions, with ongoing efforts to integrate crypto into international trade.
SEC Delays ETF Filings for Dogecoin, XRP, and Others as Agency Awaits Paul Atkins’ Confirmation
The U.S. SEC has delayed reviewing several crypto ETF proposals, including those for Litecoin, Dogecoin, Solana, and XRP, as it awaits the confirmation of Paul Atkins as its new chair. Industry experts say the delay is expected and does not impact approval odds, with Bloomberg analysts still giving Litecoin a 90% chance of approval, followed by Dogecoin (75%), Solana (70%), and XRP (65%). The SEC, which has already approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, is undergoing a crypto-friendly shift under the new administration, rescinding restrictive policies and dropping enforcement cases against major firms like Coinbase and UniSwap.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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