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The crypto market had a quiet weekend, with prices staying mostly flat since Friday afternoon. BTC has been trading in the $82k to $85k range, despite nearly $1 billion in ETF outflows last week. With ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and growing recession fears, it looks like we’ll continue to see choppy price action. That said, the Nasdaq is looking like it could break out soon. It just pushed through a downtrend channel on the 4-hour chart and broke above its 20-period moving average, which has been resistance since February 20th. The RSI has also finally moved above the neutral 50 level for the first time in three weeks. If the equity market starts to rally again, crypto will likely follow suit.
Looking at the on-chain data, we spotted a $350 million short position on BTC at 40x leverage, with a liquidation price of $85.3k. If BTC starts moving up with the Nasdaq, we could see a short squeeze. Nvidia's GTC AI Conference is coming up this week, which might spark some movement in AI-related tokens after months of downtrend.
Wall Street had another rough week for equities. The Nasdaq dipped deeper into correction territory, and the Russell 2000 is getting close to a bear market, down nearly 20% from its peak. Investors are struggling to keep up with President Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies and growing signs of economic slowdown, which has caused a lot of volatility. This uncertainty has many wondering if this stock market correction could turn into a full-blown bear market.
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged that corrections are a normal part of the market cycle but didn’t rule out the possibility of a recession. This suggests that Trump may not be backing off his tariff policies anytime soon. If stock prices keep falling, it’s hard to see BTC holding up much longer, especially with the lack of positive catalysts in the crypto space.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday. The focus will be on the economic projections and Chairman Powell's comments afterward, as investors are eager to see if his tone changes, especially since he’s previously emphasized that the Fed isn’t in a hurry to cut rates.
The News Room
South Korea's Central Bank Rules Out Bitcoin Reserve Possibility
The Bank of Korea (BOK) has ruled out the possibility of adding bitcoin to its foreign exchange reserves, citing its high volatility and non-compliance with IMF guidelines. The central bank emphasized concerns over transaction costs and liquidity risks, aligning with the cautious stance of Japan, Switzerland, and the European Central Bank. This decision follows U.S. President Donald Trump's recent executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which has spurred global discussions on similar reserves. Meanwhile, South Korea continues to ease crypto regulations, with its financial watchdog preparing new guidelines for institutional trading and stablecoin oversight.
North Korea surpasses El Salvador and Bhutan in BTC holdings following $1.4 billion Bybit hack
North Korea's Lazarus Group now holds 13,518 BTC ($1.13 billion), surpassing the bitcoin reserves of Bhutan and El Salvador, according to Arkham Intelligence. The surge follows Lazarus' $1.4 billion exploit of Bybit on Feb. 21, where the group swapped a large portion of stolen ether for bitcoin via THORChain. North Korea’s BTC holdings now rank behind only the U.S. (198,109 BTC) and the U.K. (61,245 BTC). Despite global sanctions, North Korea continues to fund its weapons programs through cyberattacks and cryptocurrency thefts, according to U.S. officials.
Strategy makes much smaller $10.7 million bitcoin buy as its total holdings near 500,000 BTC
Strategy has acquired 130 BTC for $10.7 million at an average price of $82,981 per bitcoin, a much smaller purchase compared to its previous billion-dollar acquisitions. The latest buy was funded through the sale of its perpetual strike preferred stock, STRK. With this addition, Strategy now holds 499,226 BTC, worth over $41 billion, acquired at an average price of $66,360 per bitcoin. The company’s stock has seen a sharp decline alongside Bitcoin’s recent downturn, with MSTR falling nearly 50% from its all-time high. Despite concerns over its high valuation and leveraged Bitcoin purchases, analysts suggest Strategy’s debt structure minimizes the risk of forced selling in the near term.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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