March 18, 2025

Trading Desk Insights

There's a noticeable shift happening in the markets right now. Investors are moving away from Trump-driven trades like Nasdaq and BTC and are instead starting to put their money into European and Chinese markets, which have been overlooked for a while. Even volatility has dropped, with weekly ATM falling from 50% to 45%, and realized volatility dropping from 90% at the start of the month to around 55% recently.

On Monday, US spot BTC ETFs saw a strong inflow of $274.6 million, adding to Friday’s $41.3 million. This marks the first time since February 7th that we've had back-to-back inflows. It looks like ETF-driven selling pressure is losing steam, which could lead to more consistent inflows and help support BTC's price.

The Fed's rate decision on Wednesday could bring some volatility to the crypto market. A dovish statement might encourage more risk-taking, while a hawkish tone, signaling tighter policy or slower rate cuts, could weigh on bitcoin and altcoins. Gold has stayed steady above $3,000/oz, with BlackRock suggesting it's a better diversifier than Treasury notes in the current macro environment.

Stock futures dipped early Tuesday after two positive days on Wall Street. This marks a shift after some tough weeks, with soft economic data and President Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy leaving investors cautious about the US economy. Consumer sentiment has been dropping, with the US Consumer Sentiment Index falling 6.8 points to 57.9 in March, the lowest since November 2022, as many Americans feel like the economy is in a recession.

The News Room

Canary Capital Files for Sui Crypto ET

Digital assets investment firm Canary Capital Group filed with the SEC to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) linked to the spot price of Sui, a cryptocurrency from Sui Network. This brings the firm's total cryptocurrency ETF filings to six, reflecting growing institutional interest in the crypto market.

Kevin O'Leary Observes Shift in Crypto Regulation Under Trump

Investor Kevin O'Leary noted that under President Donald Trump's administration, cryptocurrency is moving away from its "cowboy era." He highlighted the establishment of a strategic bitcoin reserve and the appointment of a crypto czar as signs of a more structured regulatory approach.

SEC Considers Revising Crypto Custody Regulations:

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is contemplating changes to regulations introduced under the previous administration that imposed stricter standards for investment advisors handling cryptocurrencies. Acting SEC Chief Mark Uyeda indicated a potential shift towards more cost-effective regulations.

Crypto Charts

ETF Flow

Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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