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Risk assets have had quite a bumpy ride lately, with traders juggling weak economic data, uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policies, and now the big decision from the Fed today.
Everyone’s eyes are on the Fed as they’re set to announce their latest policy update at 2 pm ET. While most expect interest rates to stay the same, market players are really focused on what the central bank has to say about their economic outlook. The Fed will provide details on their rate projections, plus their thoughts on GDP, inflation, and unemployment. This comes at a time when traders are feeling uncertain about what’s next for the U.S. economy and how that might affect the markets.
The key topic will be the Fed’s quantitative tightening program. Chairman Powell has suggested that it could end in 2025. If that happens, the Fed would stop pulling liquidity from the market, which could weaken the US Dollar and potentially make riskier assets like crypto more appealing. Traders on Polymarket are betting that the Fed will announce the end of QT before May.
Looking ahead to the Fed’s 2025 forecast shared in December:
2x rate cuts in 2025
Core inflation at 2.5%
GDP growth at 2.1%
It’s important to keep an eye on the "dot plot," which shows individual members' predictions, as it can reveal disagreements on the Fed’s future direction.
Currently, the market is pricing in a 19% chance of one rate cut by the end of the year, a 34% chance of two cuts, and a 28% chance of three cuts by December 2025.
In other news, the SEC has officially dropped its lawsuit against Ripple over XRP, causing a 10% jump in prices and a 20% increase in open interest.
Additionally, Raydium, the Solana-based decentralized exchange, launched its own token issuance platform called LaunchLab. This move aims to boost revenue and attract more users to compete with Pump.Fun. The RAY token surged 30% yesterday, although it pulled back by 10% today.
The News Room
Ethereum to end support for Holesky testnet by September 2025
Ethereum has announced that it will discontinue support for the Holesky testnet by September 2025. Holesky was introduced in 2023 to provide a scalable environment for Ethereum developers, but with the network's evolving needs, the Ethereum Foundation decided to phase it out. This move is part of broader efforts to streamline the testnet landscape and focus on other network upgrades and improvements. Developers have been advised to transition their projects to alternative testnets ahead of the 2025 deadline. The Ethereum Foundation aims to ensure a smoother transition for all involved in the ecosystem.
Microsoft uncovers new trojan targeting crypto wallet extensions on chrome
Microsoft has uncovered a new trojan targeting crypto wallet extensions on Chrome. The malware is disguised as a legitimate extension and aims to steal private keys from users' wallets. It specifically targets popular crypto wallets, like MetaMask and other browser-based extensions, enabling attackers to gain access to users' cryptocurrency holdings. The trojan also employs sophisticated methods to avoid detection, including impersonating trusted applications and avoiding traditional antivirus defenses. Users are advised to be cautious about installing unverified extensions and to use trusted sources only for crypto-related applications.
Stablecoin bill could reach Trump’s desk within two months, says Bo Hines
U.S. Congressman Bo Hines' predicts that a stablecoin regulatory bill could reach President Trump's desk within the next two months. The bill aims to set clear guidelines for stablecoin issuers, ensuring they have sufficient reserves to back their tokens. Hines emphasized the importance of creating a regulatory framework that protects consumers without stifling innovation in the crypto industry. The bill is seen as a step towards establishing clear rules for stablecoins, which are seen as critical for the future of cryptocurrency and the broader financial ecosystem.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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